Almonds: earlier start to the harvest in California

Harvest began around ten days earlier

According to a recent report by the Almond Board of California, this year’s Californian almond harvest began around ten days earlier, as was the case with numerous other agricultural products. In the San Joaquin Valley, the harvest began several days to a week earlier than usual. Harvest conditions were generally favourable. Unlike in previous summers, there was no prolonged period of extreme heat. The moderate temperatures in the final weeks before the harvest are likely to have further benefited the development of the almonds towards the end of the season. Processors are expected to continue receiving almonds until November. Due to the early start to the season, processing is also likely to be completed sooner. However, it is still too early for a final crop estimate. According to Taylor Hillman of the Almond Board of California, however, based on feedback from processors so far, the crop is looking good overall across California.

A total of 1.216 billion lbs of in-shell almonds had been recorded by the end of September, which is 225% more than at this time last year. According to the Almond Board, production is expected to reach 2.7 billion lbs. Added to this are carry-over stocks from last year totalling 470.655 million lbs.

First decline in productive almond acreage since 1995

The estimate for 2026 published by Land IQ in April shows a decline in productive almond acreage compared with last year. This marks the first such decline since 1995 – a remarkable turning point after decades of continuous expansion in acreage.

The clearing of existing almond orchards is also continuing. In the latest report, around 47,000 acres were identified as cleared land, explained Hillman. Possible reasons include ageing trees and pressure from the California Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The scale of the clearings has remained largely stable in recent reports. The next report is expected in November.

More positive sentiment despite rising costs

Sentiment amongst almond growers is now significantly better than it was two years ago and also more positive than last year, Hillman reported. High input costs, which are weighing on almond growers as well as other agricultural producers, remain a cause for concern. These include, amongst other things, expenditure on water and fuel. A cost study conducted in 2024 on Californian almond production in the northern San Joaquin Valley examined production costs per US pound (lbs) for the period from 2019 to 2024. According to the study, these costs rose by 47-53% within five years.

September exports rose by 28%

The US almond sector recorded another very strong export performance in September. In total, around 232.546 million lbs of almonds, both in-shell and shelled, were shipped domestically and overseas during the second month of the 2026/2027 season, representing an increase of 18% over the same month last year. Exports totalled 189.173 million lbs (+28% year-on-year), marking the highest September figure since 2020/2021, whilst domestic deliveries, however, fell by 12% year-on-year to 43.372 million lbs.

In particular, shipments to India (+136% to 66.352 million lbs), Turkey (+313% to 13.209 million lbs) and Pakistan (+328% to 8.961 million lbs) as well as to Vietnam (+7% to 10.978 million lbs) have risen significantly compared with September 2025. By contrast, exports to the United Arab Emirates (-33% to 10.978 million lbs) and numerous key European markets, including Spain (-17% to 8.79 million lbs), the Netherlands (-3% to 6.634 million lbs), Italy (-24% to 5.455 million lbs) and Germany (-2% to 5.363 million lbs).

Total shipments remain well above last year's level

Since the start of the new season, total shipments have amounted to 422.642 million lbs of almonds, both in-shell and shelled, which is 19% more than the 355.063 million lbs recorded between August and September 2025. Of this total, 332.425 million lbs (+29% year-on-year) were exported, whilst domestic shipments amounted to 90.127 million lbs (-8% year-on-year). One reason cited is a downward trend in the nut snack segment.

India is by far the most important market; shipments there totalled 110.622 million lbs, which is 149% more than in the same period last year. US exports to countries such as Turkey (+61% to 20.233 million lbs), as well as to Pakistan (+295% to 17.155 million lbs) and Italy (+16% to 15.359 million lbs), have also risen significantly year-on-year. In contrast, shipments to Spain (-16% to 20.278 million lbs), the United Arab Emirates (-46% to 15.304 million lbs) and the Netherlands (-6% to 13.526 million lbs) were down.

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