Almonds: US exports take a hit

October 14, 2024 at 11:29 AM , Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO. Exports have kicked off to a slow start for US almonds. Europe is sporting sharp declines. Key question is in how far the crop will live up to expectations in California.

Slumps in shipments to Europe

Exports are rather disappointing for the US. According to the Almond Board of California’s Position Report for September total shipments, in fact, dipped by 11% in the first two months of the season. Domestic shipments thereby declined by 4% and exports took a 14% hit from 305 million pounds in 2023/2024 to 264 million pounds in 2024/2025. Monthly figures show that at 56 million pounds domestic shipments ranged 11% lower in September 2024 than in September 2023 but that exports have climbed by 1% to 158 million pounds. Judging by commitments that have been sold but not delivered yet this trend should persist. While domestic commitments stand 19% lower at 260 million pounds, export commitments are 10% higher than last year at 456 million pounds. This leaves an uncommitted inventory of 468 million pounds, which is 51% up on last year.

Shipments to India, the leading export destination for the US, have declined a bit this season so far. Contrary to this, shipments to the United Arab Emirates have risen by 11%. Turkey has also witnessed a stunning 88% upsurge in shipments. Yet, exports to the leading destinations in Europe, most notably Germany, have seen sharp declines. The same is also the case for shipments to China/Hong Kong.

US almond shipments (1,000 lbs)

Destination

2023/24

2024/25

Diff.

USA

124,261

117,988

-4.1%

India

73,741

72,771

-1.3%

UAE

19,409

21,629

11.4%

Turkey

10,616

19,959

88.0%

Spain

27,483

17,141

-37.6%

Netherlands

15,583

12,594

-19.2%

Italy

14,304

12,212

-14.6%

China/Hong Kong

16,547

11,883

-28.2%

Germany

22,609

10,185

-55.0%

Canada

11,343

9,921

-12.5%

South Korea

8,364

8,618

3.0%

Others

85,419

66,966

-21.6%

Total

429,679

381,845

-11.1%

California almonds, 01/08-30/09
Shelled and inshell

Mixed bag in California

Key question for pricing and exports in the next months is in how far the crop will meet official expectations of 2.8 billion pounds. Suppliers such as Treehouse California Almonds or Olam highlight that it is not possible to provide an exact assessment at present. Trouble is that quality issues prevail as weather conditions were unusually hot at the start of October. While optimism is being voiced in northern California, yields have been impacted in the southern parts of the state. Current estimates predict a crop size of 2.65-2.8 billion pounds.

 

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price chart, almonds. Mamra, Iran
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