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Almonds: NASS confirms production decline

May 17, 2022 4:58 PM, Der AUDITOR
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SACRAMENTO/CANBERRA. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) production will range 4% lower than last year at 2.80 billion pounds. US exports have picked up and exports form Austiralia have even doubled.

Low yields to weigh on production

Although bearing acreage has climbed to a record high of 1.37 million acres, production is set to decline for the second year in a row. Problem is the prolonged drought, which could not be compensated by scattered storms and snowpack, and frost damage, especially in California's North Region. NASS' subjective estimate therefore ranges at 2.80 billion pounds (1.27 million mt), which is 4% down on the 2.92 billion pounds produced last year.

U.S. almond production

Year

million lbs

Bearing acres

lbs/acre

2022*

2,800

1,370,000

2,040

2021

2,915

1,320,000

2,210

2020

3,115

1,250,000

2,490

2019

2,560

1,180,000

2,170

2018

2,280

1,090,000

2,090

USDA/NASS, Pacific Regional Office, *subjective estimate

U.S. exports pick up

Exports exceeded expectations in April and even ranged higher than last year. This is a welcome change as exports have been rather weak this season and many exporters still want to sell their supplies. Available capacities will have a decisive impact on exports throughout the remainder of the season and on end-of-season stocks. Monthly exports ranged at 183 million lbs (82,922 mt) in April as opposed to 180 million lbs (81,573 mt) in April last year. Since domestic shipments, by constrast, declined by 11% to 62 million lbs (28,317 mt) net shipments only ranged at 245 million lbs (111,238 mt) in April, which is 2% down on last year. At 1.93 billion lbs (874,700 mt) this season's net shipments, however, range 14% below the 2.23 billion lbs (1.01 million mt) shipped between August 2020 and April 2021.

U.S. almond shipments in lbs

Destination

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

USA

602,045,521

579,403,867

-3.8%

India

308,146,878

266,229,354

-13.6%

Spain

172,232,599

159,961,637

-7.1%

China/Hong Kong

143,250,079

104,733,950

-26.9%

United Arab Emirates

94,267,174

83,577,530

-11.3%

Germany

115,731,426

80,255,189

-30.7%

Japan

65,791,590

73,595.326

11.9%

Netherlands

72,662,180

72,043,556

-0.9%

Italy

72,084,618

62,628,501

-13.1%

Turkey

52,987,511

46,175,948

-12.9%

Others

529,636,334

399,779,652

-24.5%

Grand total

2,228,835,605

1,928,383,809

-13.5%

California Almonds, shelled and inshell almonds
01/08/21-30/04/22

Australia sets new record

Australia's export season started in March and is in line with expectations. Due to the bumper crop exports indeed managed to hit a record 4,131 mt, which as twice as much as last year. Shipments to China and Spain have most notably gained and shipments to India, New Zealand and Germany are also up.

Almond exports Australia in mt

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

China

512

1,728

237.5%

Spain

114

792

594.7%

India

309

381

23.3%

New Zealand

54

290

437.0%

Germany

201

243

20.9%

Netherlands

18

184

922.2%

USA

84

117

39.3%

Others

246

396

61.0%

Total

1,899

4,131

117.5%

Australian almonds, shelled and inshell almonds
March

Prices on the rise

Spot prices for U.S. almonds range nominally higher in Europe. Since the anticipated decline in production comes as no surprise to the market, prices should remain relatively firm. Suppliers have also partly raised the prices for Spanish almonds, Valencia almonds size 12/14 mm are, however, still trading at USD 4.72/ kg (EUR 4.50/kg) FCA Spain.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.50

4.72

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.70

4.93

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA

5.55

5.83

FCA Spain


View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

Attached Files

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price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

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