Almonds: supply may be the issue
August 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Domestic shipments gain in July
In the final month of the season July shipments saw a 6% rise in domestic shipments to 53 million pounds as compared with the 50 million pounds shipped in July last year. March and July were, in fact, the only two months in 2025/2026, in which monthly domestic shipments ranged higher than last year. Monthly exports stood 2% higher at 150.3 million pounds as opposed to the 147 million pounds noted in July 2025. At 204 million pounds monthly net shipments, consequently, ranged 3% higher than the 197 million pounds witnessed in July 2025.
Relatively flat shipments in 2025/2026
Total shipments are relatively flat on 2024/2025 with domestic shipments 11% down and exports 3% up. Exports to India as leading destination closed the season with an 11% downturn. Exports to the Asia Pacific as a region dipped by 2% from 757 million pounds in 2024/2025 to 744 million pounds in 2025/2026. While shipments to China/Hong Kong as the former main trading partner for US almonds have dropped to 33,300 pounds, exports to other countries in Southeast Asia have risen, most notably to Vietnam.
Spain is sporting a 20% rise in shipments. Yet exports to other destinations in Western Europe show a mixed picture with shipments to Italy 9% up, yet to Germany and the Netherlands 5% and 23% down. At 681 million pounds total shipments to Europe as whole have risen by 5% as compared with the 651 million pounds shipped in 2024/2025.
While exports to Turkey have surged by 45%, other destinations in the Middle East show sharp declines, most notably the United Arab Emirate, where shipments stand 24% lower. Exports to Morocco in North Africa have even risen by 49%. Total exports to the Middle East/Africa stand 9% higher at 473 million pounds than the 432 million pounds shipped in 2024/2025.
|
US almond shipments (1,000 lbs) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
India |
423,060 |
378,504 |
-10.5% |
|
Spain |
166,787 |
199,286 |
19.5% |
|
Turkey |
107,706 |
156,556 |
45.4%% |
|
UAE |
153,042 |
116,890 |
-23.6% |
|
Italy |
98,072 |
107,252 |
9.4% |
|
Netherlands |
128,703 |
98,964 |
-23.1% |
|
Germany |
101,741 |
96,493 |
-5.2% |
|
Morocco |
58,642 |
87,217 |
48.7% |
|
Japan |
91,131 |
84,964 |
-6.8% |
|
Vietnam |
57,530 |
74,644 |
29.7% |
|
Others |
588,680 |
633,520 |
7.6% |
|
Total Exports |
1,975,094 |
2,034,290 |
3.0% |
|
Total Domestic |
671,359 |
595,282 |
-11.3% |
|
Grand Total |
2,646,452 |
2,629,572 |
-0.6% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/07 |
|||
Possible supply constraints in 2026/2027
At 494 million pounds the computed inventory stands 4% lower than last year’s 515 million pounds and concerns about supply constraints are circulating in the market as Select Harvest USA reports. Issue is that first new crop arrivals have been rather disappointing in California as kernels have been smaller than expected so far and hulls rather oversized. The harvest season may also be quite short due to the recent hot weather conditions. Chelmer Foods also highlights that the autumn will be particularly wet this year, which will impact harvesting and processing.
Yet, a more exact picture will only emerge in the next few weeks and it is possible that kernel sizes may improve. Subjective forecasts range at 2.7 billion pounds. On the demand side, Select Harvest anticipates a rise in India as the country will need to cover for Diwali, which has the potential to further restrict supplies. Quotations have been relatively firm for prompt shipments to Central Europe in recent weeks.
|
Almonds |
||
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Standard, 5% |
6.24 |
7.20 |
|
California, SSR 27/30 |
6.44 |
7.43 |
|
NPX, 23/25 |
7.31 |
8.44 |
|
Blanched wholes and brokens, 70/5 |
7.41 |
8.55 |
|
Blanched, diced |
7.53 |
8.69 |
|
Blanched, sliced/slivered |
7.63 |
8.81 |
|
Blanched, meal |
7.43 |
8.57 |
|
Trade sources, DDP Central Europe, Aug-Sep 2026 |
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