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Blue poppy seeds: speculation and uncertainty

July 21, 2020 at 1:54 PM, Der AUDITOR
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CHRUDIM. The blue poppy seed market is speculating on declining prices this year. At the same time not every trader is prepared to take a potential risk in advance.

Disenchanting prospects

A very small part of the blue poppy seed harvest is already sown in autumn. Czech farmers have now begun harvesting this winter crop and market players are reporting disillusioning yields. These results are taken as indications for the main crop, which is why some suppliers are still hesitant to make offers for the new crop. Other traders continue to rely on falling prices and offer blue poppy seeds, <10 ppm morphine for a good EUR 2.00 per kg FCA Czech Republic. There is also disagreement about spot prices. While last week traders were demanding EUR 2.30 per kg FCA for prompt shipments, this week they are again talking about price indications of EUR 2.70 per kg.

Blue poppy seeds, Czech Republic

Type

EUR/kg

<10 ppm morphine, FCA CZ, 2019 crop

2.30-2.70

<10 ppm morphine, FCA CZ, 2020 crop

2.01

Trade sources

What is the crop volume?

The acreage of 40,000 ha this year gives a rough indication of where the production result could go. However, as soon as the yield falls below 0.6 mt/ha or not the entire area can be harvested, the crop volume quickly falls below last year's level. Persistent rainfall and not enough sunshine may have affected the development of the poppy plants. However, the exact extent of this can only be determined after the main harvest has been completed.

Blue poppy seed production, Czech Republic

Year

ha

mt/ha

mt

2016

35,543

0.80

28,574

2017

32,586

0.65

21,180

2018

26,608

0.52

13,778

2019

35,800

0.68

24,344

2020

40,000

0.50-0.80*

20,000-32,000*

Czech Statistical Office
*unofficial estimates

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