China: high market potential for nuts

U.S. and China Board of Trade

Following the September meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping the two countries set up the Board of Trade, which will negotiate retaliatory tariff cuts to the World Trade Organisations’ Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rates worth USD 30 billion each for nonsensitive products. While US corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy vegetable oils and meals may benefit, with the noted exception of US soybeans, several nuts are also listed in China’s Import List of US products issued by the White House.

The White House has released two lists of import products recommended for reduced reciprocal tariffs. The U.S. import list comprises 77 Harmonised Tariff Schedule lines for Chinese products and the China Import List 1,619 Harmonised Tariff Schedule lines for US products. The latter includes Brazil nuts, cashew nuts, almonds, hazelnuts, walnuts, pistachios and macadamia nuts. Pecans are not included in this list as China has launched an anti-dumping investigation on US and Mexican imports, which will only be concluded before 25 March 2027.

This is highlighted in USDA FAS Tree Nut Annual for China, which also showcases that US tree nuts face much higher applied tariffs than imports from other origins. While applied tariffs range at 30-50% for most US tree nuts, a 0% tariff applies for imports from Australia, Chile and ASEAN countries. A return to MFN rates of 7-25% would make a big difference.

Walnut exports to rise moderately in MY 2026/2027

For Walnuts, FAS anticipates a 7% rise in production to 1.6 million mt as compared with last year’s 1.5 million mt, which is in line with the most recent International Nut and Dried Fruit Council estimates released in July. Favourable weather conditions have also led to a larger crop and nut sizes in the province of Yunnan, which accounts for around 40% of China’s production.

Prices range lower than last year with a wider gap depending on quality as supplies are more limited for high-quality kernels. Expectation is that imports will remain restricted in MY 2026/2027 as domestic production has been expanding since 2012. China imported 1,888 mt of inshells, mainly from Australia and the USA in MY 2025/2026. In addition, walnuts comprise more than 80% of China’s tree nut exports and should rise a bit in MY 2026/2027, unimpeded by higher transportation costs. China’s main destinations are the Middle East, Turkey, Central Asia and North Africa. Shelled walnut exports have risen faster than in-shell exports with Western and Central Asia and Europe as the main buyers.

Australia holds a near monopoly for almonds

FAS further highlights that the smaller acreage in the main producing province of Xinjiang will prompt China’s in-shell almond production to decline by 5% to 21,000 mt in MY 2026/2027 as opposed to last year. In fact, the planted area has slumped by as much as 60% since 2021 as the focus has shifted from expansion to productivity and effectiveness.

China is the third-largest almond importer in the world after India and the EU and mainly relies on Australia, which accounted for as much as 95% of total imports in 2025. A bilateral free trade agreement has enabled the country to surpass the US as main trading partners since MY 2024/2025. Yet, shipments from the US should recover a bit, despite higher tariffs constraining direct trade.

High prices to reduce pistachio imports

China’s pistachio production is very much limited to around 300 mt as weather conditions are too adverse. Supply related price hikes will reduce China’s pistachio imports in MY 2026/2027. Industry expectations are that global pistachio prices will rise by 25-40% from current levels on the back of an anticipated 33% reduction in global production. Chinese customs data shows that the country’s pistachio imports slumped by nearly 70% in 2025 as compared with 2024. Iran and the US are the main suppliers. China is the fifth-largest importer after the EU, Turkey and Hong Kong as the Trade Data Monitor, LLC shows.

Growing macadamia production to weigh on imports

China is the world’s leading macadamia nut producer in the world with this year’s crop expected to rise by 12% to 110,000 mt as trees are maturing. This exceeds the INC estimate of 108,000 mt for in-shell macadamias with a 3.5% moisture content. Acreage has soared to around 380,000 ha with the province of Yunnan in southern China accounting for 80% of production. As weather conditions tend to be adverse yields do not always meet expectations. A structural issue is also that production relies on roughly 200,000 small farms, mainly in mountainous areas. The industry is now starting to focus more on standardisation, upgrades and high-quality development.

Contrary to almonds, pistachios and pecans, the import prices for macadamias declined in MY 2025/2026, mainly due to the zero tariffs for African products, which have been in place since May 2026. Driven by the rise in domestic production imports should continue to decline in MY 2026/2027. South Africa is China’s most important supplier but will not be able to offset the shortfalls from the provisional anti-dumping tariffs on shipments from the USA and Mexico, which became effective on 11 August 2026.

Hazelnut production set to rise

For hazelnuts, the Liaoning Provincial Research Institute projects a 16% rise in production to 100,000 mt as many young trees are reaching maturity and yields are improving. Production is centred in northeastern provinces such as Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin.

Challenges for pecans

Concerning pecans, anticipation is that production will double to 12,000 mt as compared with last year. Issue is that weather conditions were more favourable and that trees are maturing. While acreage spans around 80,000 ha in the provinces of Anhui, Jiangsu and Yunnan many trees are still too young to be productive. High management costs, varietal fragmentation and diseases control present major challenges for the industry.

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