Desiccated coconuts: El Niño threatens 2027 crop

Coconut market shows mixed price trends

Prices for desiccated coconuts in the Philippines remained unchanged for the 33rd consecutive week, with the average price thus remaining below the level seen in September 2025. In May, Philippine exports of desiccated coconuts fell by 8.9% year-on-year to 11,911 mt, whilst export earnings dropped by 9.2%. At the same time, the number of export markets rose to 45, according to the experts at T.M. Duché in their latest report.

Coconut oil weakens internationally

Prices for coconut oil in Europe declined again. This was driven by improved copra supplies and weakness in the palm oil market. Following the sharper decline in palm kernel oil, coconut oil once again traded above its price level. In the Philippines, however, prices held up better and the weekly average for crude coconut oil and RBD coconut oil rose. Nationwide copra prices on 1 October remained well below last year’s level.

El Niño raises supply risks

According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), a strong El Niño event is currently active and is expected to develop into a very strong event, which may persist into the first half of 2027. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also estimates a probability of more than 90% for a very strong El Niño in the autumn and winter. This increases the risk of below-average rainfall, dry spells and drought for the Philippine coconut industry. Prolonged water stress can impair the flowering and development of coconuts, thereby reducing future copra availability. However, the impact on supply may be delayed. Should the drought take hold in key growing regions, El Niño could exert additional upward pressure on coconut prices until 2027, according to T.M. Duché.

Container freight rates continued to ease between Asia and Europe. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa fell. Within Asia, however, they rose for the sixth week in a row. Freight rates are therefore likely to become more favourable overall for European importers; the costs of onward transport within Asia and the availability of containers remain key factors in this regard.

Vietnam increases coconut exports to the US

Vietnam has significantly increased its coconut exports to the US. In the first seven months of the year, shipments were worth USD 105.27 million, up 28% on the same period last year. This made coconuts Vietnam’s most important single fruit and vegetable export to the US, accounting for 29% of Vietnam’s total fruit and vegetable exports to the US market.

Fresh coconuts with growth potential

According to Nguyen Dinh Tung, CEO of Vina T&T, the green Siam coconut from Ben Tre province in particular is in line with the trend towards less sweet fruit. Improved preservation technologies now enable fresh coconuts to have a shelf life of 70 to 80 days, thereby facilitating transport over long distances. This is reported by experts at FreshPlaza, citing Voice of Vietnam.

Tung expects that demand for fresh coconuts in the US could rise by more than 20% annually in the coming years. The market for processed coconut products, including tinned goods, is, by contrast, comparatively saturated. Cao Ba Dang Khoa, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Coconut Association, emphasised that exporters should take into account demand, distribution structures and the competitive landscape in the individual US regions.

On the European spot market, the price for Philippine desiccated coconuts, fine, high fat, currently stands at around EUR 2.75/kg, whilst Vietnamese desiccated coconuts, medium, high fat, are trading at around EUR 2.00/kg.

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