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Flaxseed: Canada is struggling

August 31, 2022 4:14 PM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has surprisingly lowered its forecast for 2022/2023 flaxseed prices. So far, the yield reports from Canada are rather sobering.

Further corrections are possible

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is maintaining its previous forecast for the 2022/2023 Canadian flaxseed season, which is expected to be more than 20% smaller than last year at 310,000 ha, while significantly higher yields are still expected to result in a production growth of +20% to 420,000 mt. Meanwhile, total availability is estimated at 490,000 mt, about 18% more than in the 2021/2022 season. Surprisingly, however, the estimates regarding the average price have been reduced by a third to CAD 800/mt in the current report, but are still excessively high in an overall comparison of the past years.

Flaxseed, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

377,000

416,000

10.3%

416,000

315,000

-24.3%

Area harvested (ha)

371,000

404,000

8.9%

404,000

310,000

-23.3%

Yield (mt/ha)

1.56

0.86

-44.9%

0.86

1.36

58.1%

Production (mt)

578,000

346,000

-40.1%

346,000

420,000

21.4%

Imports (mt)

26,000

10,000

-61.5%

10,000

10,000

0.0%

Total supplies (mt)

667,000

415,000

-37.8%

415,000

490,000

18.1%

Exports (mt)

505,000

285,000

-43.6%

285,000

350,000

22.8%

Domestic consumption (mt)

103,000

70,000

-32.0%

70,000

85,000

21.4%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

59,000

60,000

1.7%

60,000

55,000

-8.3%

Avg price in CAD/mt

693

1,206

74.0%

1,206

800

-33.7%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Russia remains a tough competitor

The experts at Rayglen Commodities reaffirm the official price forecast in their current report. In order to play a role internationally, Canadian flaxseed would have to become significantly cheaper again, regardless of whether this year's crop also suffers a setback. According to the experts, the first yield reports are rather sobering, contrary to the estimates of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, with drought in some places and high moisture elsewhere causing below-average yields. Russia, however, is expecting a good flaxseed crop again this year, which is likely to make its way to China and - depending on availability and pricing in Kazakhstan - certainly also to Europe.

Newly harvested organic flaxeed, 99.9% purity from Kazakhstan is currently quoted at around EUR 1.55-1.60/kg DDP Germany, Ukrainian flaxseed is at a level of EUR 0.97/kg DDP Belgium and golden flaxseed at EUR 1.08/kg DDP Belgium.

Flaxseed, Eastern Europe

Quality

EUR/mt

Brown, 99.9% purity

970

Golden, 99.9% purity

1,080

DDP Belgium

German imports from Russia increase again

Germany's flaxseed imports are now almost 18% behind last year's volume. Between September 2021 and June 2022, the import volume totalled 102,390 mt compared to 124,240 mt imported at this time last year. Shipments from Russia increased by around 55% in total and even doubled to 3,268 mt in June compared to the same month last year. Besides Russia, Belgium (+15% to 12,303 mt) is one of the few countries that was able to increase shipments to Germany this season. At the same time, imports from Kazakhstan (-38% to 22,994 mt), Poland (-18% to 10,258 mt) and Canada (-75% to 5,586 mt) declined noticeably.

Flaxseed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

23,917

37,059

54.9%

Kazakhstan

36,946

22,994

-37.8%

Belgium

10,662

12,303

15.4%

Poland

12,449

10,258

-17.6%

Kanada

22,653

5,586

-75.3%

Netherlands

5,109

3,936

-23.0%

Czech Republic

2,818

2,049

-27.3%

Austria

2,100

1,893

-9.9%

Ukraine

992

1,693

70.7%

India

2,138

1,407

-34.2%

Others

4,456

3,212

-27.9%

Total

124,240

102,390

-17.6%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun

*12040090 Linseed (excl. for sowing)

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price chart, flaxseed, brown, 99.9% purity, Eastern Europe
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