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Flaxseed: drastic correction of production estimates

May 28, 2020 1:24 PM, Der AUDITOR
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NUR-SULTAN/OTTAWA. The prices for Eastern European flaxseed follow the trend of the last weeks. Meanwhile, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada made significant adjustments to their forecasts for the coming season.

Flaxseed prices continue to increase

Estimates state that 80% of Kazakhstan's flaxseed area has been sown so far and above-average rainfall benefits the plants. Despite high expectations, farmgate suppliers are reacting with rising prices. Spot purchases can be made at the origin for EUR 0.44-0.48 per kg FCA. For the period from mid-June to mid-August, before the new crop should arrive, offers are even at EUR 0.48-0.50 per kg FCA. On the European spot market, traders have also raised their prices for cleaned flaxseed to EUR 0.62-0.64 per kg DDP Germany.

Flaxseed

Quality

EUR/kg

Brown, 99.9%, Eastern Europe, DDP DE

0.620-0.640

Brown, 97%, Kazakhstan, FCA KZ

0.440-0.450

Brown, 97%, Russia, FCA RU

0.470-0.480

Brown, 99.9%, Canada, FCA Manitoba

0.365

Reference prices

Canada reduces production growth

Due to high soil moisture, there were massive delays in sowing for the 2020 flaxseed crop in the Canadian growing regions. Now Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has reduced the cultivation forecast for the 2020/2021 season by 15% to 381,000 ha compared to the April report, which would be somewhat equivalent to the area of last year. With an average yield per hectare, the production result could nevertheless be around 9% higher. As in previous years, the export volume is estimated at 500,000 metric tonnes, which recently turned out to be far too optimistic. As a rule, downward corrections are expected in the course of the year.

Flaxseed, Canada

2018/19 vs. 2019/20

2019/20 vs. 2020/21

Sown

347,000

379,000

9.2%

379,000

381,000

0.5%

Harvested

342,000

339,000

-0.9%

339,000

355,000

4.7%

Yield (mt/ha)

1.44

1.43

-0.7%

1.43

1.50

4.9%

Production

492,000

486,000

-1.2%

486,000

530,000

9.1%

Imports

9,000

15,000

66.7%

15,000

10,000

-33.3%

Total stocks

628,000

561,000

-10.7%

561,000

610,000

8.7%

Exports

468,000

350,000

-25.2%

350,000

500,000

42.9%

Domestic consumption

100,000

141,000

41.0%

141,000

40,000

-71.6%

Overstock supplies

60,000

70,000

16.7%

70,000

70,000

0.0%

Avg. price in CAD/mt

496

525

5.8%

525

510

-2.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

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