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Flaxseed: a first glance at the season 2022/2023

February 1, 2022 11:43 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada published the first prospects for the 2022/2023 flaxseed season in its January report. The cultivation forecast has been slightly reduced, yet hopes are high that prices will drop significantly again.

Canadian farmers could reduce acreage

After Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada had once again reduced its estimates for the 2021 flaxseed crop in its December report, the current season was spared drastic adjustments in the January report. However, based on past years, the experts are taking a look at the 2022/2023 season and what might be in store for the Canadian flaxseed market then. In fact, the current forecast is that acreage could shrink year-on-year. The supposed incentive for farmers in the form of record prices is negated by concerns about low moisture and possible losses.

This would nevertheless be bearable as it can be reckoned that the yield will not suffer as much from extreme heat and drought as last year. Based on past years, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada says a yield of 1.45 mt/ha is possible, which could result in a production increase of 68% to 580,000 mt even with a slightly smaller acreage. Despite low end-of-season stocks, a total of 620,000 mt of Canadian flaxseed would be available for the 2022/2023 season under these conditions. Prices are then expected to fall from the currently still dramatically high estimates of CAD 1,350/mt to CAD 800/mt in the coming season. That would still be significantly more expensive than in recent years. This would increase the chances for Canadian flaxseed to regain a stronger foothold in the European market and interest from China and the USA should also be better at this level. Accordingly, export potential is expected to increase by almost 40% to 450,000 mt.   

Flaxseed, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

377,000

416,000

10.3%

416,000

405,000

-2.6%

Area harvested (ha)

371,000

404,000

8.9%

404,000

399,000

-1.2%

Yield (mt/ha)

1.56

0.86

-44.9%

0.86

1.45

68.6%

Production (mt)

578,000

346,000

-40.1%

346,000

580,000

67.6%

Imports (mt)

26,000

10,000

-61.5%

10,000

10,000

0.0%

Total supplies (mt)

668,000

413,000

-38.2%

413,000

620,000

50.1%

Exports (mt)

519,000

325,000

-37.4%

325,000

450,000

38.5%

Domestic consumption (mt)

92,000

58,000

-37.0%

58,000

110,000

89.7%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

57,000

30,000

-47.4%

30,000

60,000

100.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

693

1,350

94.8%

1,350

800

-40.7%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Prices decline again

As the experts at Rayglen Commodities report, flaxseed prices in Canada continued to fall last week and the price peak should not be reached again any time soon. Since Russia was able to achieve a cvery good production result, the supply in the international market should not be as bad as feared. However, Russia is planning restrictions on flaxseed exports, which could lead to problems.

Flaxseed, Eastern Europe

Quality

EUR/mt

Brown, 99.9% purity, EXW Poland

1,015

Golden, 99.9% purity, EXW Poland

1,200

Organic, golden, 99.9% purity, DDP Germany

2,100

Trade sources

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price chart, flaxseed, brown, 99.9% purity, Eastern Europe
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price chart flaxseed, brown, Eastern Europe

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