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Hazelnuts: INC estimates prompt price adjustments

June 15, 2020 9:01 AM, Der AUDITOR
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ORDU. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council has recently issued the global production estimates for hazelnuts. Traders in Turkey have responded with price corrections.

Global production to reach 1.04 million metric tonnes

At last week's INC webinar series it was stated that the production estimate of 620,000 metric tonnes issued by Turkey's Exporters' Union largely accords with initial market estimates, which range at 600,000-650,000 metric tonnes. Since the figure contains a dropout rate of 15% production may indeed be higher. The estimates for this season's carry over stocks, which range at 90,000 metric tonnes, are deemed too high. More realistic estimates range at 70,000 metric tonnes. The expected rise in global production may, in addition, prompt demand for hazelnuts from Turkey to decline by 50,000 metric tonnes in 2020/2021.

Global hazelnut production is estimated at 1.04 million metric tonnes. While production is set to decline in Turkey, Italy should witness a sharp revival in production to 135,000 metric tonnes. Production is also set to rise in the US, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Quality has, in addition, been very good in Azerbaijan in recent years.

In-shell hazelnut production in mt

Country

2019/20

2020/21

Diff.

Turkey

790,000

620,000

-21.5%

Italy

65,000

135,000

107.7%

USA

39,500

52,000

31.6%

Georgia

38,000

50,000

31.6%

Azerbaijan

42,000

50,000

19.0%

Chile

35,000

39,000

11.4%

Iran

25,000

20,000

-20.0%

Spain

18,000

18,000

0.0%

China

12,000

15,000

25.0%

France

10,500

9,000

-14.3%

Others

27,000

30,000

11,1%

Total

1,102,000

1,038,000

-5,8%

INC, June 2020

Spot market under pressure

Due to the anticipated rise in production many market players now want to sell. Prices are on the decline, a trend which is further fuelled by the weak lira. The TMO is expetced to announce prices in July. In addition, the pros and cons of linking Turkey's hazelnut prices to the US dollar are being discussed again. Rumour currently has it that farmgate prices may range at USD 3.50 per kg, which is higher than the present price level  Reliable reference prices have still to be issued for the new crop.

Hazelnuts, Turkey

Size

EUR/kg

Natural, 11-13 mm

6.65

Diced, 2-4 mm

7.70

Meal, 0-2 mm

6.75

Hazelnut paste

6.30

DDP Germany

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