Macadamias: significantly higher supply

Supply is increasing

The macadamia markets started 2026 with firm prices. This was largely due to tight carry-over stocks following the significantly below-average 2025 crop in key producing countries such as South Africa and Australia. Whole kernels, in particular, were in short supply at the start of the season. Stable demand for healthy snacks and ingredients for the food industry provided further support for the market. However, with the start of the new harvest, the outlook is shifting. In the coming months, supply is likely to grow significantly as the pace of harvesting picks up in the main producing countries, according to the experts at ofi. This could ease the supply situation and cause prices to ease gradually, provided that demand does not keep pace.

South Africa is counting on China

Production is expected to recover to around 93,000 to 95,000 mt of in-shell macadamia nuts (NIS) by 2026. However, persistent heavy rainfall in key growing regions is causing operational challenges and posing quality risks. In addition to the quality of the crop, China’s demand for in-shell macadamias remains a key factor for the processing sector. China’s decision to reduce import duties on NIS and kernels from South Africa from 12% to 0% is likely to provide some relief. This should boost demand and encourage the signing of new supply contracts.

Australia’s crop is recovering

The Australian crop is expected to recover to around 56,000 to 58,000 mt NIS in 2026. Improved flowering conditions and older, higher-yielding plantations are supporting this development. According to ofi, initial reports from the growing regions indicate good nut development. However, the final crop volume and quality will continue to depend on the weather during the harvest. Farmgate prices have so far remained largely at last year’s level, supported by strong demand for Australian kernels. However, the US dollar’s weakness against the Australian dollar is weighing on export prices.

Focus on Kenya’s export policy

Kenya and other producing countries are also expected to increase their output compared with last year. Sufficient rainfall in East Africa has favoured nut development, and the first crops in some regions are expected shortly. Kenya’s export policy remains under scrutiny: the country had previously banned the export of in-shell macadamias in order to promote domestic processing. Any changes to this regulation could affect the supply of kernels in the coming weeks.

Price outlook still uncertain

In the short term, tight carry-over stocks and the limited availability of high-quality whole kernels are likely to support prices. High farmgate prices and competition for in-shell macadamias are also keeping processors’ costs at a high level. However, as the harvest progresses and supply is expected to increase, a gradual softening is on the horizon, particularly for lower-grade kernels. China remains an additional source of uncertainty: buyers of in-shell nuts are showing caution and postponing their purchases in anticipation of further price falls. The actual crop volume, quality and the capacity of the market to absorb supply therefore remain decisive for the market’s future development.

EU imports up slightly

EU macadamia imports rose by a moderate 2.1% between 1 January and 25 October 2026 compared with the same period last year. South Africa remains the leading supplier, although it suffered a decline of 11.6%, followed by Kenya, which increased its shipments to EU countries by more than 25%. Australia and China occupy third and fourth place, with China exporting almost 237% more macadamias to the EU than last year.

In total, 8,756 mt of macadamias have been shipped from third countries to the EU since the start of the year. The largest buyer was the Netherlands (+24.8% to 4,070 mt), followed by Germany (-17.3% to 2,200 mt) and Spain (-2.6% to 933 mt). The average import price of EUR 10.61/kg was 6% lower than last year’s figure of EUR 11.29/kg, bringing the total import value to date to just over EUR 92.866 million.

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