Oilseeds - Oilseeds

Mustard seeds: crop forecast better than expected

June 21, 2023 at 4:55 PM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

OTTAWA. Revisions to forecasts for the 2023/2024 Canadian mustard seed season were all positive. If the estimates can be met, market players expect a larger production and falling prices.

Prices halved within two years

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has recently adjusted its forecasts for the 2023/2024 Canadian mustard seed season noticeably. Acreage, crop volume, total stocks and exports are expected to be higher than previously forecast, while both end-of-season stocks and prices are expected to decline. This would bring the year-on-year increase in cultivation to 14%, with the acreage growing to 258,000 ha. With an average yield of 0.86 mt/ha, the mustard seed crop in 2023 would thus come to around 215,000 mt, about a third more than in the previous year, and total availability would also rise by 37% to 242,000 mt. With yields slowly returning to levels seen before the 2021/2022 heat disaster, this could also cause notable carry-over stocks of 90,000 mt at the end of the coming season. Prices are also expected to become significantly cheaper, with the average seasonal price estimated at CAD 1,370/mt, a whopping 36% lower than last year and not even half of what was estimated two years ago - and yet these estimates are the third highest average price for a season ever.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

258,000

14.7%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

250,000

14.2%

Yield (mt/ha)

0,55

0,74

34.5%

0,74

0,86

16.2%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

215,000

32.7%

Imports (mt)

9,000

9,000

0.0%

9,000

7,000

-22.2%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

177,000

36.2%

177,000

242,000

36.7%

Exports (mt)

106,000

135,000

27.4%

135,000

130,000

-3.7%

Domestic consumption (mt)

18,000

22,000

22.2%

22,000

22,000

0.0%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

6,000

20,000

233.3%

20,000

90,000

350.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,140

-25.8%

2,140

1,370

-36.0%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Slight price corrections for Indian goods

Russian mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 98% purity are currently trading on the European spot market at prices of EUR 770/mt FCA Poland. Meanwhile, mechanically cleaned yellow mustard seeds from India are available for USD 1,100/mt CFR Hamburg, prices for brown mustard seeds are at USD 1,060/mt CFR.

Mustard seeds

Quality

Price

India, brown, large, mechanically cleaned, CFR EMP

USD 1.060/mt

India, golden, mechanically cleaned, CFR EMP

USD 1.100/mt

Russia, Sinapis Alba, 98%, FCA Poland

EUR 770/mt

Trade sources

Shipments from Canada have multiplied

Between September 2022 and April 2023, Germany imported a total of 36,001 mt of mustard seeds, compared to 30,832 mt in the same period last year. After Germany's mustard seed imports got off to a weak start this season, imports have increased since November. Although shipments from Russia (-20% to 15,141 mt), Ukraine (-20% to 2,973 mt), Estonia (-19% to 692 mt) and Kazakhstan (-38% to 477 mt) continued to decline, the huge increase in imports from other countries lifted total imports to a higher level. For example, imports from Canada almost quadrupled to 11,060 mt, and deliveries from the Czech Republic (+155% to 2,677 mt) and Poland (+253% to 1,537 mt) also increased noticeably.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Russia

18,852

15,141

-19.7%

Canada

2,951

11,060

274.8%

Ukraine

4,584

3,668

-20.0%

Czech Republic

1,048

2,677

155.4%

Poland

435

1,537

253.3%

Estonia

854

692

-19.0%

Kazakhstan

766

477

-37.7%

Others

1,342

749

-44.2%

Total

30,832

36,001

16.8%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Apr

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

View more
price charts on oilseeds, grains, nuts, dried fruit, spices and more

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Oilseeds
May 23, 2024
NEW DELHI. After India was able to secure a large part of the positions in the last South Korean sesame seed tender, exporters have high hopes again this time. However, this would not support prices in the longer term.
Oilseeds
May 22, 2024
SOFIA/KYIV. The dwindling commodity supplies are causing sunflower seed prices in Bulgaria to rise. In Ukraine, sowing is around 90% complete.
Oilseeds
May 22, 2024
OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Canada's mustard seed crop is benefiting from favourable weather conditions. Exporters are also hoping for increased demand from the European Union.
Nuts
May 22, 2024
NEW DELHI/BUENOS AIRES. India has started exporting the summer crop and international buyers can secure attractive offers here. In North and South America, the situation is partially very tense, which is mainly due to the shortage of goods.