Mustard seeds: crop forecast better than expected
June 21, 2023 at 4:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Prices halved within two years
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has recently adjusted its forecasts for the 2023/2024 Canadian mustard seed season noticeably. Acreage, crop volume, total stocks and exports are expected to be higher than previously forecast, while both end-of-season stocks and prices are expected to decline. This would bring the year-on-year increase in cultivation to 14%, with the acreage growing to 258,000 ha. With an average yield of 0.86 mt/ha, the mustard seed crop in 2023 would thus come to around 215,000 mt, about a third more than in the previous year, and total availability would also rise by 37% to 242,000 mt. With yields slowly returning to levels seen before the 2021/2022 heat disaster, this could also cause notable carry-over stocks of 90,000 mt at the end of the coming season. Prices are also expected to become significantly cheaper, with the average seasonal price estimated at CAD 1,370/mt, a whopping 36% lower than last year and not even half of what was estimated two years ago - and yet these estimates are the third highest average price for a season ever.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
117,000 |
225,000 |
92.3% |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
110,000 |
219,000 |
99.1% |
219,000 |
250,000 |
14.2% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0,55 |
0,74 |
34.5% |
0,74 |
0,86 |
16.2% |
|
Production (mt) |
61,000 |
162,000 |
165.6% |
162,000 |
215,000 |
32.7% |
|
Imports (mt) |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
9,000 |
7,000 |
-22.2% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
130,000 |
177,000 |
36.2% |
177,000 |
242,000 |
36.7% |
|
Exports (mt) |
106,000 |
135,000 |
27.4% |
135,000 |
130,000 |
-3.7% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
18,000 |
22,000 |
22.2% |
22,000 |
22,000 |
0.0% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
6,000 |
20,000 |
233.3% |
20,000 |
90,000 |
350.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,885 |
2,140 |
-25.8% |
2,140 |
1,370 |
-36.0% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Slight price corrections for Indian goods
Russian mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 98% purity are currently trading on the European spot market at prices of EUR 770/mt FCA Poland. Meanwhile, mechanically cleaned yellow mustard seeds from India are available for USD 1,100/mt CFR Hamburg, prices for brown mustard seeds are at USD 1,060/mt CFR.
|
Mustard seeds |
|
|
Quality |
Price |
|
India, brown, large, mechanically cleaned, CFR EMP |
USD 1.060/mt |
|
India, golden, mechanically cleaned, CFR EMP |
USD 1.100/mt |
|
Russia, Sinapis Alba, 98%, FCA Poland |
EUR 770/mt |
|
Trade sources |
|
Shipments from Canada have multiplied
Between September 2022 and April 2023, Germany imported a total of 36,001 mt of mustard seeds, compared to 30,832 mt in the same period last year. After Germany's mustard seed imports got off to a weak start this season, imports have increased since November. Although shipments from Russia (-20% to 15,141 mt), Ukraine (-20% to 2,973 mt), Estonia (-19% to 692 mt) and Kazakhstan (-38% to 477 mt) continued to decline, the huge increase in imports from other countries lifted total imports to a higher level. For example, imports from Canada almost quadrupled to 11,060 mt, and deliveries from the Czech Republic (+155% to 2,677 mt) and Poland (+253% to 1,537 mt) also increased noticeably.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
18,852 |
15,141 |
-19.7% |
|
Canada |
2,951 |
11,060 |
274.8% |
|
Ukraine |
4,584 |
3,668 |
-20.0% |
|
Czech Republic |
1,048 |
2,677 |
155.4% |
|
Poland |
435 |
1,537 |
253.3% |
|
Estonia |
854 |
692 |
-19.0% |
|
Kazakhstan |
766 |
477 |
-37.7% |
|
Others |
1,342 |
749 |
-44.2% |
|
Total |
30,832 |
36,001 |
16.8% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Apr *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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