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Mustard seeds: cultivation forecast raised by 20%

July 28, 2022 10:27 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. StatsCan has significantly increased its forecast for the 2022/2023 Canadian mustard seed season in its latest report. At present, however, it can be expected that prices will remain at a comparatively high level in the coming year.

Canadian mustard seed shipments to Germany increase

German mustard seed imports increased by more than half year-on-year in the period September 2021 to May 2022. The most important supplier by far was Russia, which shipped 19,818 mt to Germany - a full 62% more than in the same period last year. The second and third most important suppliers were Ukraine with 5,735 mt (+5%) and Canada with 3,858 mt (+90%). May imports from Canada were a whopping 907 mt, almost four times as much as in the same month last year and the best figure since January 2020. The average monthly imports this season were just 429 mt, last season (Sep-May) even only 226 mt. In total, German imports were 30,400 mt in the period mentioned.

Prices for yellow mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.95% purity are currently at a level of EUR 1.79/kg FCA Poland on the European spot market.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

12,225

19,818

62.1%

Ukraine

5,477

5,735

4.7%

Canada

2,032

3,858

89.9%

Czech Republic

477

1,055

121.2%

Estonia

873

854

-2.2%

Kazakhstan

220

818

271.8%

India

13

652

4,915.4%

Poland

466

353

-24.2%

USA

0

350

-

Others

814

507

-37.7%

Total

22,131

34,000

53.6%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-May

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

Production could increase by 250%

Canada's mustard seed crop could be even better than expected this year. StatsCan significantly corrected the 2022/2023 season forecast in the current report. The estimate for this year's acreage was raised by the experts by a good 20% compared to the reports of recent months, while the yield forecast remains unchanged. Under optimal conditions, the Canadian mustard seed crop could thus increase by 250% year-on-year to 175,000 mt, after drought and heat reduced production to a 40-year low in 2021. The new crop is also getting closer and prices are slowly declining. Nevertheless, the price forecast for 2022/2023 is still at a comparatively high level of just over CAD 2,000/mt.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

104,000

125,000

20.2%

125,000

225,000

80.0%

Area harvested (ha)

101,000

113,000

11.9%

113,000

217,000

92.0%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.98

0.44

-55.1%

0.44

0.81

84.1%

Production (mt)

99,000

50,000

-49.5%

50,000

175,000

250.0%

Imports (mt)

6,000

15,000

150.0%

15,000

7,000

-53.3%

Total supplies (mt)

165,000

105,000

-36.4%

105,000

182,000

73.3%

Exports (mt)

111,000

105,000

-5.4%

105,000

110,000

4.8%

Domestic consumption (mt)

15,000

0

-100.0%

0

42,000

-

Carry-over stocks (mt)

40,000

0

-100.0%

0

30,000

-

Avg price in CAD/mt

885

3,000

239.0%

3,000

2,050

-31.7%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

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