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Mustard seeds: high dependency on Russia

June 8, 2022 at 12:46 PM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Prospects for mustard seeds have improved in Canada and are much more encouraging than last year. Exports will, however, only range nominally higher as the recently issued estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada show. Germany strongly relies on Russia for supplies.

Prices to hit record

Since production only reached 50,000 mt Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates this year's carry-over supplies as low as 5,000 mt, which is nearly 90% down on last year. Exports will also only range at 85,000 mt, which is 23% down on last year. Fortunately, production is set to nearly triple to 145,000 mt in 2022/2023 and total supplies will range nearly 50% higher at 157,000 mt, which will help exports to climb nominally to 90,000 mt. Canada mainly ships mustard seeds to the United States and the EU. As supplies are low, average prices will certainly hit a record this season.

In Eastern Europe, the current market situation is turbulent and wide price gaps exist. While some suppliers refuse to issue spot market prices, others are offering Sinapis Alba seeds with a 99.9% purity for EUR 2.50-2.90/kg (USD 2.68-3.10/kg) DDP Poland. The prospects for the new crop coupled with the demand situation will largely determine prices in the next few weeks.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

 

Area sown (ha)

104,000

125,000

20.2%

125,000

185,000

48.0%

 

Area harvested (ha)

101,000

113,000

11.9%

113,000

179,000

58.4%

 

Yields (mt/ha)

0.98

0.44

-55.1%

0.44

0.81

84.1%

 

Production (mt)

99,000

50,000

-49.5%

50,000

145,000

190.0%

 

Imports (mt)

6,000

15,000

150.0%

15,000

7,000

-53.3%

 

Total supplies (mt)

165,000

105,000

-36.4%

105,000

157,000

49.5%

 

Exports (mt)

111,000

85,000

-23.4%

85,000

90,000

5.9%

 

Domestic consumption (mt)

15,000

15,000

0.0%

15,000

42,000

180.0%

 

Carry-over stocks (mt)

40,000

5,000

-87.5%

5,000

25,000

400.0%

 

Avg price in CAD/mt

885

3,000

239.0%

3,000

2,050

-31.7%

 

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany largely depends on Russia

Germany heavily relies on Russia and has stepped up imports from this country by more than 66% between September and March. While shipments from Ukraine have only risen nominally by less than 6%, Canada has also stepped up shipments to Germany by almost 60%. Total shipments to Germany have risen by 55%.

Mustard seed imports, Germany in mt

Origin

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

10,439

17,361

66.3%

Ukraine

4,246

4,497

5.9%

Canada

1,733

2,715

56.7%

Czech Republic

391

842

115.3%

Kazakhstan

275

655

138.2%

Others

317

907

186.1%

Total

17,401

26,977

55.0%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Sep-Mar

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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