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Mustard seeds: first prediction for the season 2022/2023

January 31, 2022 4:51 PM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. As if Canadian mustard seeds were not already expensive enough, the estimated average price for the current season has been raised once again. However, despite concerns about possible weather damage, the price level should ensure that growers increase their acreage this year.

Acreage to be increased in 2022

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has released its January report and raised its price forecast for Canadian mustard seeds once again. Due to the low yield per hectare, which has halved year-on-year to 0.44 mt/ha, and the smallest mustard seed crop since records began, farmers are making good profits. The average price is expected to be CAD 2,290/mt this season.

Unlike the flaxseed market, however, Agriculture and Agri-Food reckons that this will be a reason for farmers to increase the area under cultivation to 150,000 ha next season. The experts also expect yields to be significantly better again, with an estimated 0.79 mt/ha. Thus, under ideal conditions, production could increase by 130% to 115,000 mt, while total availability is still expected to be a third higher than the current season at 132,000 mt. With regard to price adjustments, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is somewhat more cautious; at an average of CAD 1,500/mt, these are still expected to be far above those of recent years.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

104,000

125,000

20.2%

125,000

150,000

20.0%

Area harvested (ha)

101,000

113,000

11.9%

113,000

145,000

28.3%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.98

0.44

-55.1%

0.44

0.79

79.5%

Production (mt)

99,000

50,000

-49.5%

50,000

115,000

130.0%

Imports (mt)

6,000

7,000

16.7%

7,000

7,000

0.0%

Total supplies (mt)

166,000

97,000

-41.6%

97,000

132,000

36.1%

Exports (mt)

111,000

70,000

-36.9%

70,000

80,000

14.3%

Domestic consumption (mt)

15,000

17,000

13.3%

17,000

37,000

117.6%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

40,000

10,000

-75.0%

10,000

15,000

50.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

885

2,290

158.8%

2,290

1,500

-34.5%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Price peak not yet reached?

Currently, prices in the Canadian mustard seed market have stabilised, but the experts at Rayglen Commodities report that prices have not yet reached their final peak. Meanwhile, in the European spot market, prices for cleaned golden mustard seeds are at a level of EUR 1.36/kg EXW Hungary.

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