Mustard seeds: first prediction for the season 2022/2023
January 31, 2022 at 4:51 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Acreage to be increased in 2022
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has released its January report and raised its price forecast for Canadian mustard seeds once again. Due to the low yield per hectare, which has halved year-on-year to 0.44 mt/ha, and the smallest mustard seed crop since records began, farmers are making good profits. The average price is expected to be CAD 2,290/mt this season.
Unlike the flaxseed market, however, Agriculture and Agri-Food reckons that this will be a reason for farmers to increase the area under cultivation to 150,000 ha next season. The experts also expect yields to be significantly better again, with an estimated 0.79 mt/ha. Thus, under ideal conditions, production could increase by 130% to 115,000 mt, while total availability is still expected to be a third higher than the current season at 132,000 mt. With regard to price adjustments, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is somewhat more cautious; at an average of CAD 1,500/mt, these are still expected to be far above those of recent years.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
Diff. |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
104,000 |
125,000 |
20.2% |
125,000 |
150,000 |
20.0% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
101,000 |
113,000 |
11.9% |
113,000 |
145,000 |
28.3% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.98 |
0.44 |
-55.1% |
0.44 |
0.79 |
79.5% |
|
Production (mt) |
99,000 |
50,000 |
-49.5% |
50,000 |
115,000 |
130.0% |
|
Imports (mt) |
6,000 |
7,000 |
16.7% |
7,000 |
7,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
166,000 |
97,000 |
-41.6% |
97,000 |
132,000 |
36.1% |
|
Exports (mt) |
111,000 |
70,000 |
-36.9% |
70,000 |
80,000 |
14.3% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
15,000 |
17,000 |
13.3% |
17,000 |
37,000 |
117.6% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
40,000 |
10,000 |
-75.0% |
10,000 |
15,000 |
50.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
885 |
2,290 |
158.8% |
2,290 |
1,500 |
-34.5% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Price peak not yet reached?
Currently, prices in the Canadian mustard seed market have stabilised, but the experts at Rayglen Commodities report that prices have not yet reached their final peak. Meanwhile, in the European spot market, prices for cleaned golden mustard seeds are at a level of EUR 1.36/kg EXW Hungary.
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