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Mustard seeds: prices to double in Canada

November 30, 2021 3:52 PM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has recently revised its estimates for the current season and anticipates much higher prices for mustard seeds. Prices are, in fact, causing a high degree of uncertainty. Russia tripled its shipments to Germany in September.

Exports to fall more than 30% short of expectations

The prices for mustard seeds have hit unusual highs in Canada and it is impossible to tell how long this trend will last. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has sharply revised prices upwards in its recent estimates for 2021/2022. Extreme heat and drought have caused great damage. As production has hit a 40-year low average mustard seed prices are expected to climb to CAD 1,700/mt, meaning that they will double on last year. This has also prompted the estimates for exports to be cut by 41,000 mt to 70,000 mt. In Europe, the prices for golden mustard seeds with a 95-97% purity range at EUR 749/mt FCA Poland.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2019/20 vs 2020/21

2020/21 vs 2021/22

Area sown (ha)

161,000

104,000

-35.4%

104,000

124,000

19.2%

Area harvested (ha)

155,000

101,000

-34.8%

101,000

119,000

17.8%

Yields (mt/ha)

0.87

0.98

12.6%

0.98

0.60

-38.8%

Production (mt)

135.000

99.000

-26.7%

99,000

71,000

-28.3%

Imports (mt)

7,000

6,000

-14.3%

6,000

7,000

16.7%

Total supplies (mt)

214,000

166,000

-22.4%

166,000

118,000

-28.9%

Exports (mt)

112,000

111,000

-0.9%

111,000

70,000

-36.9%

Domestic consumption (mt)

42,000

15,000

-64.3%

15,000

38,000

153.3%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

61,000

40,000

-34,4%

40,000

10,000

-75.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

700

885

26.4%

885

1,700

92.1%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany steps up buying in Russia

Mustard seed shipments to Germany ranged at 6,163 mt in September, which is around 140% up on the same month last year. Shipments from Russia nearly tripled to 4,649 mt, whereas shipments from Ukraine (+27% to 983 mt) and Canda (+25% to 250 mt) range considerably lower. Germany has imported a total of 26,989 mt of mustard seeds this year so far (Jan-Sep 2021), which is 12% less than in the same period last year. While total shipments from Russia are 4% up on last year at 15,504 mt, the shipments from Ukraine (-32% to 6,174 mt), Canada (-16% to 2,820 mt) and Kazakhstan (-62% to 330 mt) have, by contrats, declined sharply. 

Mustard seed imports, Germany in mt

Country

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

1,608

4,649

189.2%

Ukraine

771

982

27.4%

Canada

1

250

24.8%

Kazakhstan

0

154

n/a

Moldova

0

66

n/a

Czech Republic

0

26

n/a

Poland

10

12

20.0%

Estonia

165

0

-100.0%

Others

3

24

834.6%

Total

2,557

6,163

141.0%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany, September 2021

12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

 

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