Mustard seeds: redeeming rainfall
July 18, 2023 at 4:55 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Drought could affect yields
The forecast for Canada's 2023/2024 mustard seed season remained unchanged from previous estimates in the latest report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Thus, production should still be able to achieve a result of 215,000 mt thanks to larger acreage and higher yields, which is about a third more than in the 2022/2023 season.
The weather situation remains a crucial factor for the success of the harvest, as at times there had been hardly any rain in the main growing regions and within a few weeks the condition of the mustard plants in Saskatchewan and Alberta had deteriorated massively. Experts at Rayglen Commodities reported that much-needed rainfall finally arrived last week in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, where much of Canada's mustard seeds are grown. However, they do not rule out the possibility that the rain has already come too late for individual fields. Spot prices for yellow mustard seeds are at CAD 0.90/lb FOB farm in the Canadian market, for the new crop indications are significantly lower at CAD 0.60/lb FOB farm.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
117,000 |
225,000 |
92.3% |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
110,000 |
219,000 |
99.1% |
219,000 |
250,000 |
14.2% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0,55 |
0,74 |
34.5% |
0,74 |
0,86 |
16.2% |
|
Production (mt) |
61,000 |
162,000 |
165.6% |
162,000 |
215,000 |
32.7% |
|
Imports (mt) |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
9,000 |
7,000 |
-22.2% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
130,000 |
177,000 |
36.2% |
177,000 |
242,000 |
36.7% |
|
Exports (mt) |
106,000 |
135,000 |
27.4% |
135,000 |
130,000 |
-3.7% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
18,000 |
22,000 |
22.2% |
22,000 |
22,000 |
0.0% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
6,000 |
20,000 |
233.3% |
20,000 |
90,000 |
350.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,885 |
2,140 |
-25.8% |
2,140 |
1,370 |
-36.0% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
New crop from Ukraine
Meanwhile, in the European market there are already offers for Ukrainian mustard seeds from the new crop. Prices for Sinapis Alba, 99.9% are at EUR 1.10/kg FCA Poland and Brassica Juncea, 99.9% are trading at a level of EUR 1.32/kg FCA.
|
Mustard seeds, Ukraine |
|
|
Quality, 2023 crop |
EUR/kg |
|
Sinapis Alba, 99.9% |
1.10 |
|
Sinapis Alba, 99.5% |
0.97 |
|
Brassica Juncea, 99.9% |
1.32 |
|
FCA Poland |
|
Germany's imports remain above last year's level
After comparatively strong April imports of more than 5,000 mt, Germany's May imports fell again year-on-year by 700 mt to 2,710 mt. Shipments from Russia almost doubled to 1,770 mt compared to May 2022, while imports from Canada (-76% to 219 mt) and Ukraine (-95% to 63 mt) were much lower.
In total, Germany imported 38,712 mt of mustard seeds between September 2022 and May 2023, compared to 34,314 mt in the same period last year. Shipments from Russia (-15% to 16,911 mt), Ukraine (-35% to 3,744 mt) and Kazakhstan (-39% to 499 mt) declined year-on-year, but the huge increase in imports from other countries caused total imports to rise. For example, imports from Canada almost tripled to 11,279 mt, and deliveries from the Czech Republic (+188% to 3,039 mt) and Poland (+278% to 1,700 mt) also increased noticeably.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
19,818 |
16,911 |
-14.7% |
|
Canada |
3,858 |
11,279 |
192.4% |
|
Ukraine |
5,754 |
3,744 |
-34.9% |
|
Czech Republic |
1,057 |
3,039 |
187.5% |
|
Poland |
450 |
1,700 |
277.8% |
|
Kazakhstan |
818 |
499 |
-39.0% |
|
India |
762 |
119 |
-84.4% |
|
Others |
1,797 |
1,421 |
-20.9% |
|
Total |
34,314 |
38,712 |
12.8% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Apr *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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