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Mustard seeds: redeeming rainfall

July 18, 2023 at 4:55 PM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Drought had been causing considerable trouble to Canada's mustard seed regions, but last week finally brought some much-needed rainfall. Germany's imports from Canada have tripled year-on-year.

Drought could affect yields

The forecast for Canada's 2023/2024 mustard seed season remained unchanged from previous estimates in the latest report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Thus, production should still be able to achieve a result of 215,000 mt thanks to larger acreage and higher yields, which is about a third more than in the 2022/2023 season.

The weather situation remains a crucial factor for the success of the harvest, as at times there had been hardly any rain in the main growing regions and within a few weeks the condition of the mustard plants in Saskatchewan and Alberta had deteriorated massively. Experts at Rayglen Commodities reported that much-needed rainfall finally arrived last week in southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan, where much of Canada's mustard seeds are grown. However, they do not rule out the possibility that the rain has already come too late for individual fields. Spot prices for yellow mustard seeds are at CAD 0.90/lb FOB farm in the Canadian market, for the new crop indications are significantly lower at CAD 0.60/lb FOB farm.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

258,000

14.7%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

250,000

14.2%

Yield (mt/ha)

0,55

0,74

34.5%

0,74

0,86

16.2%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

215,000

32.7%

Imports (mt)

9,000

9,000

0.0%

9,000

7,000

-22.2%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

177,000

36.2%

177,000

242,000

36.7%

Exports (mt)

106,000

135,000

27.4%

135,000

130,000

-3.7%

Domestic consumption (mt)

18,000

22,000

22.2%

22,000

22,000

0.0%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

6,000

20,000

233.3%

20,000

90,000

350.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,140

-25.8%

2,140

1,370

-36.0%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

New crop from Ukraine

Meanwhile, in the European market there are already offers for Ukrainian mustard seeds from the new crop. Prices for Sinapis Alba, 99.9% are at EUR 1.10/kg FCA Poland and Brassica Juncea, 99.9% are trading at a level of EUR 1.32/kg FCA.

Mustard seeds, Ukraine

Quality, 2023 crop

EUR/kg

Sinapis Alba, 99.9%

1.10

Sinapis Alba, 99.5%

0.97

Brassica Juncea, 99.9%

1.32

FCA Poland

Germany's imports remain above last year's level

After comparatively strong April imports of more than 5,000 mt, Germany's May imports fell again year-on-year by 700 mt to 2,710 mt. Shipments from Russia almost doubled to 1,770 mt compared to May 2022, while imports from Canada (-76% to 219 mt) and Ukraine (-95% to 63 mt) were much lower.

In total, Germany imported 38,712 mt of mustard seeds between September 2022 and May 2023, compared to 34,314 mt in the same period last year. Shipments from Russia (-15% to 16,911 mt), Ukraine (-35% to 3,744 mt) and Kazakhstan (-39% to 499 mt) declined year-on-year, but the huge increase in imports from other countries caused total imports to rise. For example, imports from Canada almost tripled to 11,279 mt, and deliveries from the Czech Republic (+188% to 3,039 mt) and Poland (+278% to 1,700 mt) also increased noticeably.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Russia

19,818

16,911

-14.7%

Canada

3,858

11,279

192.4%

Ukraine

5,754

3,744

-34.9%

Czech Republic

1,057

3,039

187.5%

Poland

450

1,700

277.8%

Kazakhstan

818

499

-39.0%

India

762

119

-84.4%

Others

1,797

1,421

-20.9%

Total

34,314

38,712

12.8%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Apr

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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