Olive oil: high carry-over stocks expected
July 9, 2025 at 9:22 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Competitive pressure for Turkey
Good crop prospects on the international olive market are putting pressure on the Turkish olive oil industry. High yields are expected this year in important producing countries such as Spain and Tunisia. In addition, Turkey was unable to export the hoped-for quantities of olive oil this season, which is why market experts reckon that the industry will start the new 2025/2026 season with carry-over stocks of more than 200,000 mt. In the current season, record production and cary-over stocks from 2023 of 125,000 mt meant that around 600,000 mt of Turkish olive oil was available on the market.
Olive oil prices on the international market had already fallen significantly in 2024/2025, and traders fear that prices will decline again by early 2026 at the latest. Measures are needed to protect the domestic market, although export restrictions did not have the desired effect last time.
The construction of licensed warehouses, which are designed to create the perfect conditions to significantly slow down the inevitable loss of quality in olive oil that has already been produced, should improve the situation for producers. However, the first warehouses of this kind will not be completed for another three to four years.
The Turkish olive oil sector is now hoping to gain a foothold in the Chinese market. According to reports, the annual demand for olive oil currently stands at 30,000 mt, but the market has the potential to increase its consumption to 100,000 mt over the next five years.
EU imports down by 28%
Since the start of the 2024/2025 season on 1 October, a total of 52,034 mt of olive oil (EU categories 1 to 5, treated and untreated) worth EUR 231.856 million has been imported into the EU from third countries, representing a 28.1% decline in import volume compared with the same period last year, while the import value fell by as much as 58.1%. At EUR 4.46/kg, the average price per kilogram is significantly below last year's level of EUR 7.65/kg. This is likely due to the significant increase in production volumes in EU-producing countries this season.
While shipments from Turkey (+36.2% to 1,346 mt) and Algeria (+49.9% to 649 mt) rose significantly, imports from the main source country Tunisia (-22.9% to 39,352 mt) as well as Egypt (-50.5% to 4,234 mt) and Morocco (-70.3% to 1,537 mt) fell significantly year-on-year.
The main importers in the EU were Italy (+3.1% to 25,390 mt), Spain (-65.1% to 10,770 mt) and France (+27.3% to 8,910 mt), followed by Belgium (+13.8% to 2,960 mt) and Germany (+66.7% to 1,110 mt).
|
EU olive oil imports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Tunisia |
51,026 |
39,352 |
-22.9% |
|
Egypt |
8,555 |
4,234 |
-50.5% |
|
Morocco |
5,172 |
1,537 |
-70.3% |
|
Turkey |
988 |
1,346 |
36.2% |
|
Algeria |
433 |
649 |
49.9% |
|
UK |
724 |
560 |
-22.7% |
|
Syria |
97 |
426 |
339.2% |
|
Libanon |
1,460 |
420 |
-71.2% |
|
Albania |
2,035 |
253 |
-87.6% |
|
Peru |
1,167 |
217 |
-81.4% |
|
Others |
753 |
3,040 |
303.7% |
|
Total |
72,410 |
52,034 |
-28.1% |
|
Quelle: DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/10-06/07 |
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