Olive oil: impossible trading environment
August 12, 2026 at 1:30 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Consternation over additional Trump import duty
As of 24 July 2026, an additional US import duty of 12.5% has been applying for olive oil from Turkey. Issue is that the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) is of the opinion that Turkey along with 53 other countries has failed to impose or enforce a ban on importing goods produced entirely or in part by forced labour. The higher rate, which raises the former 10% additional import duty by 2.5%, applies under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act as Turkish Minute explains.
As local media highlight industry representatives are outraged in Turkey as competitor Tunisia is exempt from the duty. Additional duties, however, do apply in other major olive oil supplying countries for the US. Morocco is also hit by the 12.5% duty and a 15% duty applies for shipments from Italy and Spain. Emre Uygun, President of the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters Association (EZZİB), emphasised that if this decision is not corrected before the harvest season in October, Turkish exporters risk losing their most important market.
In the first nine months of 2024/25, the Turkish olive oil sector, in fact achieved exports worth USD 480 million, with USD 118 million of this coming from the US. In terms of volume exports stood at 44,097 mt, of which 19,041 went to the US. Thus, 43 mt out of every 100 mt was shipped to the US. In the first six months of 2026, olive oil exports to the US generated USD 21 million.
Uygun is highly concerned that if the US market closes, Turkish olive oil risks being sold as raw material to other major producing countries such as Spain and Italy adding that, “we are expecting a good harvest in the new season, but we may not be able to take advantage of this due to the new decision. We have made representations to the Ministry of Trade and all relevant bureaucracy regarding this matter.”
Challenges for production and export
As Uygun further highlights several other also challenges prevail for production and exports. Turkey’s combined olive and olive oil exports reached around 59,000 mt worth USD 187 million in the first half of 2026. This marks an annual decline of 30% in both quantity and value. Main drivers are the negative impact of the global climate crises on yields, increasing production costs and the effects of export restrictions along with the general contraction in demand in international markets.
Black olive exports, moreover, decreased by 13% in terms of quantity to 33,000 mt and by 7% in terms of value to USD 88 million. According to Uygun:
Green olive exports also decreased by 22% in terms of quantity to 9,780 mt and by 15% in terms of value to USD 28 million. The most significant contraction was witnessed in the olive oil export market. While exports decreased by 52% in terms of quantity to approximately 11,000 mt, the foreign exchange revenue obtained from this product group remained at USD 57 million, a decrease of 48%.
Bumper crop vs. high prices
In addition to the ever-increasing number of trees, this year is expected to be a bumper year, resulting in the highest olive crop in the history of the country. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute's (TÜİK) plant production estimates, a crop of 3.8 million mt is projected this year, representing a 56% increase on last year.
Managing this abundance is becoming increasingly difficult for the sector, which has been struggling with high costs in recent years. Having lost its competitiveness in the export market due to high prices, market conditions will be tough with such a high production. Currently, the price of extra virgin olive oil is around TRY 250 TL/L (USD 5.23/L) in the domestic market. Only three weeks ago prices ranged at a much lower TRY 230-235/L (USD 4.82-4.92/L). In Spain, the price per litre is currently around EUR 3.60 (USD 4.15). For Turkey to be able to export its olive oil, prices need to range at EUR 3.10 (USD 3.58), which corresponds to TRY 170. Since it is impossible to buy at the current price of TRY 250 and sell at TRY 170, the market has come to a standstill.
Carryover to amount to 20,000 mt
Approximately 200,000 mt of olive oil will be carried into next season, which will create a major problem. In addition, a ban on bulk exports has been in effect in the sector for two years and only the export of packaged branded oil is encouraged. However, due to the high taxes imposed by Europe, Turkish branded oils cannot be competitive, no matter how high their quality is.
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