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Soybeans: production estimate not the real issue in China

October 1, 2026 at 12:43 PM , Der AUDITOR
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DALIAN. In China, the production forecast for soybeans is not quite as relevant as other factors. Expectation is that trends will diverge in the new season.

Production forecast not that relevant

According to exporters China’s official forecast for the 2026/2027 soybean crop shows a slight reduction in area and a small increase in yield. Total output will remain broadly stable, having exceeded 20 million mt for several consecutive years. The real uncertainty lies not in whether there will be a significant drop in production but rather in the weather during the peak harvest period in the Northeast, the timing of the first frost and the proportion of high-protein, low moisture commercial soybeans.

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