Sunflower seeds: Coceral revises production forecast
July 29, 2026 at 2:45 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Smaller crops in France and Hungary
The EU grain trade association Coceral published a revised production forecast for the EU sunflower seed crop in July. Compared with the June report, estimates were reduced by % – from 9.993 million mt to 9.396 million mt. However, this would still mean the 2026 crop is around 8% above last year’s level of 8.683 million mt. There were significant downward revisions in July to the figures for Hungary (down 14% compared with June) and France (down 15% compared with June), whilst the forecast for Bulgaria was also reduced by 1% to 1.746 million mt.
|
EU sunflower seed production, in mt |
||||||
|
Country |
2025 |
2026 (Dec '25) |
2026 (Mar '26) |
2026 (Jun '26) |
2026 (Jul '26) |
Diff. (2025 vs 2026) |
|
Romania |
1,964,000 |
2,260,000 |
2,337,000 |
2,083,000 |
2,083,000 |
6.1% |
|
Hungary |
1,702,000 |
2,052,000 |
1,480,000 |
2,181,000 |
1,874,000 |
10.1% |
|
Bulgaria |
1,520,000 |
1,728,000 |
1,764,000 |
1,764,000 |
1,746,000 |
14.9% |
|
France |
1,411,000 |
1,434,000 |
1,606,000 |
1,606,000 |
1,364,000 |
-3.3% |
|
Spain |
863,000 |
994,000 |
969,000 |
988,000 |
988,000 |
14.5% |
|
Italy |
252,000 |
250,000 |
250,000 |
275,000 |
275,000 |
9.1% |
|
Slovakia |
178,000 |
213,000 |
213,000 |
239,000 |
239,000 |
34.3% |
|
Greece |
224,000 |
252,000 |
252,000 |
252,000 |
224,000 |
0.0% |
|
Croatia |
154,000 |
171,000 |
171,000 |
171,000 |
171,000 |
11.0% |
|
Germany |
148,000 |
145,000 |
145,000 |
145,000 |
145,000 |
-2.0% |
|
Others |
267,000 |
412,000 |
302,000 |
289,000 |
287,000 |
7.5% |
|
Total |
8,683,000 |
9,911,000 |
9,489,000 |
9,993,000 |
9,396,000 |
8.2% |
|
Coceral, July 2026 |
||||||
Suppliers in a speculative mood
Prices remain stable. In Ukraine, weak demand for sunflower seeds is even leading to a slight downward trend in commodity prices, with quotations of UAH 31,500-32,500/mt CPT (EUR 617-637/mt).
There are hardly any hulled sunflower seeds available for immediate shipment from Eastern European origins; price indications remain at EUR 1,180/mt DDP Germany. The focus is on the new crop. Unlike in France and Hungary, the outlook for sunflower seed production in Bulgaria, Moldova, Romania and Ukraine remains positive. Some suppliers are therefore speculating on falling prices and are offering the new crop at a level at which they are currently unable to cover their costs.
Although a record crop of 20.7 million mt is expected in Russia this year, market players are looking ahead to late summer with concern. Fears are being voiced that the fields cannot be harvested due to the diesel shortage. Other agricultural commodities are also affected by this situation.
|
Sunflower kernels |
|
|
Type |
EUR/mt |
|
Bakery, DDP Hamburg, 2025 crop |
1,180 |
|
Bakery, DAP Bulgaria, 2026 crop |
|
|
Black, inshell, CPT Varna, 2025 crop |
575 |
|
Trade sources |
|
Possible production decline in Argentina
Falling prices and waning international demand could prompt Argentine sunflower seed farmers to reduce their sowings once again, according to experts at UkrAgroConsult. Both the EU and Turkey imported several hundred thousand tonnes of sunflower seeds from the South American country during the second half of the 2025/2026 season. If production in both regions recovers as expected, a repeat of this situation is unlikely. At the same time, lower production also poses risks for the Argentine sunflower seed sector. Nationwide, 5.5 million mt of sunflower seeds can be processed annually; a smaller crop could lead to undesirable idle capacity.
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