Sunflower seeds: current crop forecasts deviate
June 10, 2020 at 4:05 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Coceral is more pessimistic
Sufficient rainfall and numerous hours of sunshine promote the development of the Bulgarian sunflower crop and the flower heads start to form. At present, it can be reckoned that the area under cultivation is larger than last year, but there are discrepancies in the data. While Coceral estimates the area at 798,000 ha, the Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture speaks of 820,000 ha. In both cases, however, an increase in production is expected - to 1.915-1.968 million metric tonnes.
The demand situation is normal for this period, which is why the good prospects put pressure on prices. Black in-shells with a 98% purity declined this week to EUR 348 per metric tonne CPT Varna. Spot prices for bakery kernels are at the same level as last week, but there are also some occasional more favourable positions. Further price corrections are expected for the new crop, but due to the long time until the new crop is available, traders are holding back on price corrections. Offers for deliveries in the 2020/2021 season are therefore at a level of EUR 655-680 per metric tonne DDP Germany.
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Sunflower seeds, Bulgaria |
|
|
Quality |
EUR/mt |
|
Hulled, bakery, DDP Germany, 2019 crop |
690-755 |
|
Hulled, bakery, DDP Germany, 2020 crop |
655-680 |
|
Unhulled, 98% purity, CPT Varna |
348 |
|
Trade sources |
|
Current estimates for Europe
Coceral estimates sunflower seed production in Europe in its June report at 10.761 million metric tonnes, in addition to which the USDA estimates for the Moldovan crop are much higher, bringing the total to 11.211 million metric tonnes. According to current estimates, many large growing countries should be able to achieve an increase in production over last year, including Bulgaria (+5.2% to 1.915 mt), Hungary (+5.8% to 1.8 million mt) and France (+16.9% to 1.518 million mt). In contrast, smaller areas under cultivation and a lower yield per hectare should ensure that production in the main growing country, Romania, falls by 12.7% to 2.576 million metric tonnes.
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Sunflower seed production, Europe, in 1,000 mt |
|||
|
Country |
2019 |
2020 |
Diff. |
|
Romania |
2,950 |
2,576 |
-12.7% |
|
Bulgaria |
1,821 |
1,915 |
5.2% |
|
Hungary |
1,701 |
1,800 |
5.8% |
|
France |
1,298 |
1,518 |
16.9% |
|
Spain |
788 |
846 |
7.4% |
|
Serbia |
621 |
609 |
-1.9% |
|
Moldova* |
806 |
950 |
17.9% |
|
Greece |
209 |
280 |
34.0% |
|
Italy |
265 |
276 |
4.2% |
|
Slovakia |
18 |
151 |
738.9% |
|
Others |
385 |
290 |
-24.7% |
|
Total |
10,862 |
11,211 |
3.2% |
|
COCERAL; *USDA / estimated June 2020 |
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- price chart, sunflower kernels, bakery, Eastern Europe
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