Walnuts: production smaller than anticipated
October 6, 2026 at 10:55 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Early harvest
As the “2026 California Marketable Walnuts Position Report” issued by California Walnuts highlights early spring bud break and good weather conditions prompted harvesting to start more than two weeks ahead of schedule. Nuts are slightly smaller in size than last year, yet the quality is strong and the colour light.
Smaller production
Production will be smaller than last year and similar in size to 2024. The USDA NASS "Objective Measurement Report" predicts a 16% decline on last year’s 809,000 short tons. This figure is a far cry from the much more upbeat International Nut and Dried Fruit Council estimate of 689,500 mt (760,044 US tons) issued in July citing excellent weather conditions in May and June. Yet, inconsistent winter chill hours along with shifting temperatures in spring prompted uneven pollination, a lighter nut set and a higher degree of non-marketable walnuts.
While Land IQ’s acreage report shows a stable producing bearing acreage of 371,000, the objective measurement survey conducted between 20 July and 29 August indicates that the average nut set per tree ranges 18% lower last year.
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California walnuts, inshell |
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|
Acreage and production |
2025 |
2026 |
Diff. |
|
Producing bearing acreage |
370,963 |
370,906 |
0.0% |
|
Nut set per tree |
972 |
796 |
-18.1% |
|
Total production (US ton) |
809,000 |
680,000 |
-16.0% |
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USDA NASS 2026 California Walnut Objective Measurement Report, Land IQ |
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Solid demand in Italy and Spain
According to the "Inventory Report" issued by California Walnuts, the reported shipments of commitments in 2025/2026 of 894,050 short tons exceeded the total marketable volume of 880,794 short tons by 13,256 short tons. This limits the inventory to 667,000 short tons in 2026/2027. As California Walnuts further highlights the 2026 Marketable Supply of kernels and in shells is projected at 633,000 short tons. This figure includes expected hulling and drying eliminations and processing losses or non-marketable eliminations.
In an interview conducted with AgNetWest Michael Jameson, director of sales at Morada Nut Company expects buying interest to remain strong in Spain and Italy. By contrast, shipments should dip to Turkey in the next few months as the country is well covered.
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