Nuts

Almonds: demand to hit supplies

April 13, 2021 4:35 PM, Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

MADRID/SACRAMENTO. Although the US witnessed a record production of almonds without shell that exceeded 1.4 million mt in 2020, end-of-season stocks are expected to range as low as 315,000-320,000 mt. Issue is that overseas demand has been surprisingly strong this season given the pandemic. Exports in March even ranged 50% higher than last year. This will certainly have an impact on prices, also in Europe.

March shipments 28% up on last year

US almond shipments climbed to 120,950 mt in March, which is not only 28% up on March last year but also highly impressive considering the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on logistics, catering and tourism. In addition, it should be noted that US consumption declined by 11% to 32,323 mt in March. Overseas shipments have, by contrast, risen by 50% to 88,627 mt in the same month. Shipments to India (+62% to 11,033 mt), Spain (+34% to 9,861 mt) and Germany (+86% to 8,978 mt) and China/Hong Kong (+191% to 3,315 mt) have most notably risen. Total US shipments for almonds with and without shell range at 897,626 mt this season so far, which is nearly 20% up on the same period last year.

US almond shipments

Destination

2020/21

2019/20

Diff.

USA

241,300

232,580

4%

North/South America

41,037

35,203

17%

Asia/Oceania

277,020

195,222

42%

Europe

232,761

204,231

14%

Africa/Middle East

105,509

95,629

10%

Total

897,626

762,864

18%

ABC, since the start of the season

First estimates to be issued at the end of April

US almond production without shell exceeded 1.4 million mt this season, which is a 22% rise on the record production witnessed in 2019/2020. As supplies for some varieties are running low certain prices are, nevertheless, expected to rise this season. Another bumper crop is highly unlikely this year. Issue is that the trees require time to recover and reports from orchards with high production in 2020 are not exactly encouraging. First production estimates will be issued at the end of April once the data on bearing acreage has emerged. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will issue a subjective estimate on 12 May. On top of this, the strong export performance in March has prompted Blue Diamond Almonds to estimate end-of-season stocks for 2020/2021 as low as 315,000-320,000 mt.

Prices to remain attractive for common varieties

While limited supplies are expected to drive up the prices some almond varieties over the next few weeks, the spot market prices for Valencia and California almonds have remained highly attractive in Europe. The prices on offer may, however, differ by a few cents depending on supplier.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

3.80-3.95

Valencia, 12/14 mm, blanched, Spain

4.65-4.80

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain

5.70

Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

7.40

California, SSR, 23/25, natural

4.20

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched

4.85

Organic, Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

8.40-9.00

Organic, Valencia, >14 mm, natural, Spain

8.50-8.90

FCA Spain

View more
price chart, almonds. natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSRmore price charts 

Attached Files

File icon
price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
File icon
price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
Aug 2, 2022
ORDU. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s announcement of the Turkish Grain Board’s (TMO) purchasing price for new crop hazelnuts caused a bit of confusion on Saturday. Although the state-run organisation clarified prices on Monday, traders do not think that the market will buy into them. Rumour has it that Ferrero has swiftly responded.
Nuts
Aug 1, 2022
NEW DELHI/ATLANTA. Farmers are switching to more attractive alternatives such as cotton or soy in India and in the United States. China's peanut production will only rise nominally in 2022/2023 and US suppliers are having a hard time competing with India.
Nuts
Jul 28, 2022
ORDU. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will announce the TMO’s purchasing price for hazelnuts this week and guesses are running wild. Lucky buyers can purchase organic hazelnuts at a discount.
Nuts
Jul 28, 2022
ZARANDIEH. Iran’s Markazi province may only rank sixth in terms of the area under cultivation and crop size, but Zarandieh county is the country’s leading producing area for organic pistachios. Turkey will replace Iran as second most important producer in 2022/2023.