Nuts

Almonds: demand to hit supplies

April 13, 2021 4:35 PM, Der AUDITOR
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MADRID/SACRAMENTO. Although the US witnessed a record production of almonds without shell that exceeded 1.4 million mt in 2020, end-of-season stocks are expected to range as low as 315,000-320,000 mt. Issue is that overseas demand has been surprisingly strong this season given the pandemic. Exports in March even ranged 50% higher than last year. This will certainly have an impact on prices, also in Europe.

March shipments 28% up on last year

US almond shipments climbed to 120,950 mt in March, which is not only 28% up on March last year but also highly impressive considering the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on logistics, catering and tourism. In addition, it should be noted that US consumption declined by 11% to 32,323 mt in March. Overseas shipments have, by contrast, risen by 50% to 88,627 mt in the same month. Shipments to India (+62% to 11,033 mt), Spain (+34% to 9,861 mt) and Germany (+86% to 8,978 mt) and China/Hong Kong (+191% to 3,315 mt) have most notably risen. Total US shipments for almonds with and without shell range at 897,626 mt this season so far, which is nearly 20% up on the same period last year.

US almond shipments

Destination

2020/21

2019/20

Diff.

USA

241,300

232,580

4%

North/South America

41,037

35,203

17%

Asia/Oceania

277,020

195,222

42%

Europe

232,761

204,231

14%

Africa/Middle East

105,509

95,629

10%

Total

897,626

762,864

18%

ABC, since the start of the season

First estimates to be issued at the end of April

US almond production without shell exceeded 1.4 million mt this season, which is a 22% rise on the record production witnessed in 2019/2020. As supplies for some varieties are running low certain prices are, nevertheless, expected to rise this season. Another bumper crop is highly unlikely this year. Issue is that the trees require time to recover and reports from orchards with high production in 2020 are not exactly encouraging. First production estimates will be issued at the end of April once the data on bearing acreage has emerged. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will issue a subjective estimate on 12 May. On top of this, the strong export performance in March has prompted Blue Diamond Almonds to estimate end-of-season stocks for 2020/2021 as low as 315,000-320,000 mt.

Prices to remain attractive for common varieties

While limited supplies are expected to drive up the prices some almond varieties over the next few weeks, the spot market prices for Valencia and California almonds have remained highly attractive in Europe. The prices on offer may, however, differ by a few cents depending on supplier.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

3.80-3.95

Valencia, 12/14 mm, blanched, Spain

4.65-4.80

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain

5.70

Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

7.40

California, SSR, 23/25, natural

4.20

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched

4.85

Organic, Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

8.40-9.00

Organic, Valencia, >14 mm, natural, Spain

8.50-8.90

FCA Spain

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price chart, almonds. natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
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price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain
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