Almonds: prices are a disaster
May 24, 2024 at 1:13 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Disappointing March
While exports were lagging on last year right rough until January, February changed the picture. Monthly exports, in fact, soared by 19% to 12,409 mt as compared with February 2023. In contrast to this, monthly exports were rather disappointing in March as they ranged 5% lower at 11,194 mt as compared with March 2024. Total exports have flatlined on last year at 97,703 mt.
Shipments to Spain’s top export destination France range a bit higher than last year, whereas the export volume to Germany has dipped by 8%. Exports to Italy are also relatively flat. Contrary to this, Portugal has increased imports from Spain by 18%, a sharp rise in shipments of 31% has also been recorded to the Netherlands. Yet, shipment to all other destinations in amongst Spain’s top ten have declined, most notably by 26% in Turkey.
|
Almond exports, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff |
|
France |
22,933 |
23,103 |
0.7% |
|
Germany |
20,498 |
18,842 |
-8.1% |
|
Italy |
16,470 |
16,531 |
0.4% |
|
Portugal |
3,472 |
4,096 |
18.0% |
|
UK |
3,879 |
3,445 |
-11.2% |
|
Netherlands |
2,652 |
3,428 |
31.3% |
|
Poland |
3,329 |
3,181 |
-4.5% |
|
Belgium |
3,028 |
2,629 |
-13.2% |
|
Switzerland |
1,829 |
1,749 |
-4.4% |
|
Turkey |
2,229 |
1,648 |
-26.1% |
|
Others |
17,030 |
19,051 |
11.9% |
|
Total |
97,349 |
97,703 |
0.3% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain, 01/08-31/03 |
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New estimates and disastrous prices
Helped along by new bearing trees and spring rains the 2024 crop estimate presented at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council Congress in Vancouver is highly encouraging and stands at 130,000 mt for Spain. Yet, the extreme drought and excessive heat witnessed in spring and summer last year have prompted the INC to revise the estimate for the 2023 crop downwards to below 100,000 mt. Some producers even state that the crop only reached 80,000 mt at the very most.
Despite this sharp decline in production and demand remaining high, prices are too low. Valencia almonds size 12/14 have been trading at around EUR 4.00/kg (USD 4.34/kg) EXW Spain in the past few weeks. For many almond farmers the current prices are a disaster as they fail to cover production costs. Even suppliers state that prices should range 30% higher for better returns. Trouble, however, is that sellers need to compete internationally. Although US almonds have recently gained some ground due to demand being high, they are still trading at comparatively low levels with standard 5% almonds recently quoted at around EUR 3.80/kg (USD 4.12/kg).
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