Nuts

Almonds: revised estimates drive up prices

July 20, 2022 at 11:26 AM , Der AUDITOR
Play report as audio

CANBERRA.While US almond exports have picked up in recent months, Australia has witnessed an unexpected hit to exports. Revised production estimates are driving up the market.

Production falls short of expectations

Australian Almonds has reported unexpected harvest delays. Although harvesting is normally completed by Easter, rains and logistical challenges kept growers busy until June this year. Rains have also impacted quality and drying. While initial production estimates for almond kernels ranged at 145,000 mt, this year's crop comes closer to 138,650 mt.

Exports also spell bad news for the industry. Australia's almond exports, in fact, only reached 7,806 mt in May, which is 20% down on the 9,791 mt shipped overseas in May 2021. Performance was much better in March and April. Total exports have declined by 5% to 15,816 mt this season so far as compared with the same period in 2021. Shipments to China have risen by 8% to 7,093 mt and shipments to Spain, the Netherlands and New Zealand have also risen considerably. Contrary to this, shipments to India and Germany have declined.

Almond exports Australia, in mt

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

China

6,547

7,093

8.3%

India

3,984

2,307

-42.1%

Spain

777

1,384

78.1%

Germany

799

775

-3.0%

Netherlands

182

754

314.3%

New Zealand

228

529

132.0%

UAE

574

518

-9.8%

Turkey

522

496

-5.0%

Vietnam

899

369

-59.0%

USA

292

161

-44.9%

Others

1,873

1,430

-23.7%

Total

16.677

15.816

-5,2%

Australian Almonds, Mar-May, KWE

Price adjustments due to revised estimates

Production will also decline in Spain and in the United States this year. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) recently revised production estimates downwards to 2.6 billion lbs (1.179 million mt), which is an 11% decline on last year. This has prompted suppliers to raise their prices. European spot market prices are nominally up on last week and the prices for Valencia almonds range at USD 4.64/kg FCA Spain. As high volumes are arriving from the United States in European at present, traders will stock up in Europe in summer and be less dependent on the new crop.

Almonds

Type

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.55

4.64

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.75

4.89

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain

6.20

6.33

California, SSR, 23/25, blanched, USA

5.50

5.61

FCA Spain

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

Attached Files

File icon
price chart almonds natural California 27-30 SSR
File icon
price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

View related articles

Go to the News Overview
Nuts
May 21, 2024
REUS. South Africa is boasting a 35% uprise in pecan kernel output for 2024/2025. Judging by the historical average US production will flatline. Brazil will experience a production decline.
Nuts
May 16, 2024
SACRAMENTO/ISFAHAN. US almond shipments exceeded 2 billion pounds in April. The USDA subjective crop forecast is fuelling uneasy speculations. Almonds have come under fire in Iran.
Nuts
May 15, 2024
MANILA. The extremely high temperatures in the Asian countries of origin are likely to exacerbate the commodity shortage for the 2025 crop. A similar scenario was already observed last year.
Nuts
May 15, 2024
REUS/ORDU. Expectations over global production rising by 20% for hazelnuts in 2024/2025 have fuelled hopes that prices will fall. Yet, Turkey is confronted with other challenges at present, trouble is that the TMO may jump into action.