Almonds: risky approach
October 10, 2025 at 12:30 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Downturn in domestic shipments
At 197 million pounds September shipments stood 8% lower than the 214 million pounds shipped in September last year according to the Position Report issued by California Almonds. Monthly exports thereby declined by 6% to 148 million pounds and monthly domestic shipments dipped by 12% to 50 million pounds. These trends are also reflected in the total shipments for the first two months of the season. While exports declined by a moderate 2%, domestic shipments are 17% down, which brings the grand total down by 7%.
Moderate decline in export
Exports to top destination India have taken a 39% hit as the market is already covered for Diwali, which will be celebrated on 20 October. According to Select Harvest importers are also delaying the release of cargo to benefit from reductions in the goods and service tax. Demand should bounce back after Diwali.
By contrast, exports to the United Arab Emirates have risen by 30%. Shipments to other destinations in the Middle East are, however, down with exports to Turkey declining by 37% as volatile prices have put off buyers.
Shipments to Spain have risen by an impressive 42% and gains are also being reported in the Netherlands, Italy and Germany as buyers required volumes for Christmas.
Another interesting development is that China no longer features amongst the top ten. Instead exports to other countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, have witnessed sharp rises. They also supply China but cannot fill the gap.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
India |
72,771 |
44,522 |
-38.8% |
|
UAE |
21,629 |
28,051 |
29.7% |
|
Spain |
17,141 |
24,273 |
41.6% |
|
Netherlands |
12,594 |
14,406 |
14.4% |
|
Vietnam |
8,318 |
13,475 |
62.0% |
|
Italy |
12,213 |
13,299 |
8.9% |
|
Turkey |
19,959 |
12,538 |
-37.2% |
|
Germany |
10,185 |
11,191 |
9.9% |
|
Canada |
9,921 |
10,156 |
2.4% |
|
Japan |
8,356 |
8,150 |
-2.5% |
|
Others |
70,770 |
77,034 |
8.9% |
|
Total Exports |
263,857 |
257,095 |
-2.2% |
|
Total Domestic |
117,988 |
97,968 |
-17.0% |
|
Grand Total |
381,845 |
355,063 |
-7.0% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-30/09 |
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Risky hand-to-mouth approach
Crop receipts to date range 4% lower than last year at 992 million pounds, carry-ins are nearly 4% lower at 484 million pounds and the computed inventory stands 3% lower than last year at 1.1 billion pounds. California crop estimates still range at 2.7-2.8 billion pounds. Expectation is that the market will be highly volatile this season as many markets are only engaging in short term buying and supplies may easily become tight. When buyers in India return after Diwali prices may very well rise again.
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