Almonds: surprisingly strong exports
February 17, 2025 at 11:45 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Position report a mixed bag
After three strong months January may have performed quite weak but shipments have exceeded expectations as the January Position Report issued by the Almond Board of California shows. At 228.64 million pounds total monthly shipments stood 3% lower than last year. Yet, as Olam highlights January 2024 saw record volumes shipped, and industry expectations only stood at 210 million pounds. Exports ranged 4% lower at 166.99 million pounds and domestic shipments 2% lower at 61.65 million pounds as compared with January 2024.
Total shipments are also pointing downwards. The grand total is, however, quite fixed at 1.37 billion pounds. While domestic shipments have declined by 1% to 357.57 million pounds, exports are relatively firm at 1.02 billion pounds for August to January. In terms of destinations exports show differing directions. Although year-to-date shipments to India have declined by 18%, buying is reportedly picking up with customers eager to refill stocks. While shipments to the United Arab Emirates are flat, demand has been quite strong in the Middle East this season so far. Shipments to Turkey have, for instance, surged by 64%.
European buyers forced to change tack
Expectation is also that buyers in Europe will need to change tack very soon. With local crop volumes running low buyers will have to accept higher US prices. Shipments to Spain and Germany range 13% lower than last year, whereas exports to the Netherlands as re-exporter have surged by 27%. In Asia, shipments to China have slumped by 45% but are up in Japan and Vietnam.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
India |
237,504 |
195,851 |
-17.5% |
|
UAE |
85,804 |
85,770 |
0.0% |
|
Spain |
94,538 |
81,980 |
-13.3% |
|
Netherlands |
55,420 |
70,235 |
26.7% |
|
Turkey |
41,709 |
68,208 |
63.5% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
73,776 |
40,978 |
-44.5% |
|
Germany |
55,183 |
42,775 |
-12.5% |
|
Italy |
43,751 |
46,215 |
5.6% |
|
Japan |
39,345 |
40,675 |
3.4% |
|
South Korea |
27,572 |
31,520 |
14.3% |
|
Others |
264,823 |
311,623 |
17.7% |
|
Total Exports |
1,019,425 |
1,015,830 |
-0.4% |
|
Total Domestic |
361,248 |
357,568 |
-1.0% |
|
Grand Total |
1,380,673 |
1,373,398 |
-0.5% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/01 |
|||
Bullish sentiments
Industry leaders have made it quite clear that the January Position Report has provided bullish sentiments. Issue is not only that exports have exceed expectations but also that crop receipts range at 2.66 billion pounds. Although this is 11% up on last year’s 2.39 billion pounds, it is now clearly out of the question that the objective crop estimate of 2.80 billion pounds will be met. Current industry estimates rather range at 2.7-2.73 billion pounds.
Trump ironically redirects attention to water
While blooming will prove highly decisive in the next few months, US President Donald Trump has unwittingly brought water issues to the forefront. In a mismatched move Trump intended to redirect two gallons of irrigation water from reservoirs to Los Angeles to help fight wildfires two weeks ago. This move not only sparked fears of flooding as it is physically not possible to pump water in that direction but also highlighted that water supplies are very much an issue at present. While recent reports have stated that snowpack is good and that reservoirs are well filled, winter has been very dry so far. Fortunately, the taps were not turned on in a too late move to provide support in Los Angeles, where the fires have already been well under control for weeks.
Irony, however, is that California’s famers, who mainly are ardent supporters of Trump, briefly experienced the side-effects of his down to action approach they so much approve of. Trump has, in the past, frequently pledged to support their water interests. In recent statements he has, however, shown himself shocked by the fact that a lot of water is being wasted by an outdated system that drains large volumes into the Pacific Ocean, whereas much needed reservoir supplies are running low.
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