Almonds: tariffs and rain complicate business
April 1, 2025 at 11:06 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Wet March
Spain has witnessed the rainiest March since the 1960s. While there has been some impact on pollination and fruit set, diseases and fungi will certainly become an issue due to the damp conditions prevailing in the orchards. Good news, however, is that after last year’s drought reservoirs are now 70% full on average. In southeastern Spain, this figure, however, only ranges at 20%.
Annoying tariffs
Tariffs, or rather the noise they generate, are also a nuisance for business. In response to US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports from the EU, which came into effect on 12 March, the EU Commission immediately announced countermeasures. The first round started on 1 April as the already existing counter tariffs for Trump’s 2018 and 2020 import duties have not been suspended as originally intended. As the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) reports the 25% tariffs on US peanut butter and dried cranberries have thereby remained in place. A second round has been postponed until mid-April to allow time for negotiations. These measures will also target shelled and inshell US almonds.
As the INC highlights the proposed tariffs on US almonds would harm EU processors and manufacturers, who heavily rely on California’s almonds. Contrary to this, Spain’s National Association of Organic Almond Producers (Aepaec) is calling for tariffs of at least 25% to be imposed on US almond imports citing unfair competition as organic almond producers frequently have to sell at a loss, whereas the industry can rely on cheap imports that use more water and chemicals. These discussions and Trump’s back-and-forth policies have left the industry in a state of flux with producers waiting to see how the situation along with the wet weather conditions will play out before selling.
Exports bounce back
Spain’s exports recovered very well in the first six months of the season. While exports ranged as low as 74,029 mt last year, they bounced back by 23% to 91,152 mt between August 2024 and January 2025. Monthly exports also rose by 22% to 13,981 mt in January 2025 as compared with the 11,485 mt registered in January 2024.
France and Germany are the two most important export destinations for Spain, closely followed by Italy. Shipments to the Netherlands have risen by an impressive 76% and also sharply to Turkey. Contrary to this, exports to Portugal and the UK are down. Shipments to Egypt, the only non-European country listed in the top ten destinations for Spain, have more than tripled.
|
Almond exports, Spain (mt) |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff |
|
France |
17,023 |
18,729 |
10.0% |
|
Germany |
15,225 |
18,647 |
22.5% |
|
Italy |
12,525 |
17,975 |
43.5% |
|
Netherlands |
2,469 |
4,333 |
75.5% |
|
Portugal |
3,577 |
3,362 |
-6.0% |
|
Turkey |
1,155 |
2,625 |
27.3% |
|
Poland |
2,408 |
2,549 |
5.9% |
|
UK |
2,704 |
2,159 |
-20.2% |
|
Belgium |
1,923 |
2,087 |
8.5% |
|
Egypt |
578 |
1,865 |
222.7% |
|
Others |
14,442 |
16,821 |
16.5% |
|
Total |
74,029 |
91,152 |
23.1% |
|
Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain, 01/08-31/01 |
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