Almonds: war overshadows February boost
March 16, 2026 at 11:34 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
February record
At 196 million pounds monthly exports surged to the highest volume on record for February, thereby also ranging 24% higher than the 159 million pounds exported in February 2025. Monthly domestic shipments, by contrast, slumped by 20% to 45 million pounds as compared with the 56 million pounds shipped in February last year. At 241 million pounds monthly net shipments, consequently, stood 12% higher than last year’s 215 million pounds.
War turns mood
Grand total year-to-date shipments have dipped by 4% and domestic shipments by 18%. Total exports are, however, no longer lagging behind last year. Although still ranging 4% lower than last year, shipments to India have certainly caught up. While some suppliers such as Select Harvest highlight that buying will continue to pick up this season, others such as Blue Diamond Almonds are a bit less optimistic in stating that customers in India are closely eying global price trends and economic conditions.
Exports to Spain are 16% up on last year. Demand is also strong in Italy but has declined in the Netherlands and Germany with shipments to Western Europe ranging 1% higher than last year at 356 million pounds.
Exports to the United Arab Emirates have dipped by 1% this year so far, whereas shipments to Turkey have risen by 23%. Total shipments to the Middle East have climbed by 5% to 233 million pounds since last year. Yet the region has been severely hit by the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the USA and Isreal launched their attacks on 28 February. Shipments to the region have been severely disrupted and demand directly impacted.
Vietnam witnessed the sharpest uprise of 72% in shipments from California. Shipments to Southeast Asia have risen by 49% this season so far to 84 million pounds as compared with the 56 million pounds recorded last year.
|
US almond shipments (1,000 lbs) |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
India |
221,413 |
213,100 |
-3.8% |
|
Spain |
97,273 |
112,895 |
16.1% |
|
UAE |
97,703 |
96,765 |
-1,0% |
|
Turkey |
74,376 |
91,448 |
23.0% |
|
Italy |
53,791 |
63,451 |
18.0% |
|
Netherlands |
82,893 |
55,699 |
-32.8% |
|
Vietnam |
31,201 |
53,629 |
71.9% |
|
Germany |
53,036 |
51,818 |
-2.3% |
|
Morocco |
37,683 |
47,113 |
25.0% |
|
Japan |
49,766 |
43,688 |
-12.2% |
|
Others |
375,446 |
349,502 |
-6.9% |
|
Total Exports |
1,174,581 |
1,179,108 |
0.4% |
|
Total Domestic |
413,750 |
338,677 |
-18.1% |
|
Grand Total |
1,588,331 |
1,517,785 |
-4.4% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-28/02 |
|||
Uncertainty takes hold
Crop receipts stood at 2.679 billion pounds on 28 February, which is less than 1% off on last year’s 2.681 billion pounds. Computed inventories ranged 3% higher than last year at 1.59 billion pounds. While traders were optimistic that export demand would pick up in February, the Middle East conflict has now added a very high degree of uncertainty. Suppliers are looking into rerouting shipments, which will however entail longer transit times and higher transportation costs. Fuel prices are also an issue. WTI crude oil futures temporarily exceeded USD 100 per barrel on Monday. Consensus is that the longer the conflict lasts the more challenges the market will face.
Conditions in bloom were a bit mixed as Select Harvest reports. Issue is that Nonpareil trees started to fully bloom quite early and the weather kept shifting between cold and wet and sunny and mild conditions. Attention has now turned towards nut set and water availability as snowpack sits below average in Sierra Nevada and Northern California. Good news, however, is that most major water reservoirs are at or above average. Yet, the risk of a hot and dry summer is elevated as an El Niño pattern is developing in the Pacific Ocean.
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