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Brazil nuts: bleak outlook

May 20, 2025 at 4:20 PM , Der AUDITOR
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SUCRE/PALMA. Looking at the latest INC estimates, it becomes clear that the Brazil nut crop will experience a dramatic decline in the 2025/26 season. This is likely to significantly exacerbate the already prevailing raw material shortage.

Drastic decline in yield

At its congress, which took place from 8-10 May in Palma de Majorca, the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) published its latest estimates for the Brazil nut crop in 2025/26. These are anything but rosy, as significant declines are expected in all three major producing countries. In Brazil, by far the most important producer, a 40% smaller crop is expected, as is the case in Brazil, which ranks third in terms of volume. In Peru, the second most important producing country, the crop is expected to be 20% smaller. The main reason cited is the environmental problems in the South American rainforests where Brazil nuts are harvested. According to the INC, global production in the 2025/26 season will be 37.1% lower than in the previous year. This is particularly problematic because the supply of raw materials already posed a significant challenge in the 2024/25 season, and this situation is now likely to worsen.

Brazil nut production, in-shell, in mt

Country

2024/25

2025/26

Diff.

Bolivia

78,000

46,800

-40.0%

Peru

14,700

11,760

-20.0%

Brazil

7,500

4,500

-40.0%

Gesamt

100,200

63,060

-37.1%

INC, May 2025

Demand in the EU is rising

While the supply situation is deteriorating, EU consumers' buying interest in Brazil nuts continues to rise. In the period from 1 January to 11 May 2025, EU countries imported a total of 3,686 mt of Brazil nuts worth a good EUR 32.5 million, which corresponds to a volume increase of 7.2% compared to the same period of the previous year, while the import value even rose by a whopping 73.7%. The most important suppliers here are also Bolivia, Peru and Brazil. While Bolivia's exports to the EU totalled 3,217 mt, only 2.1% more than last year, Peru was able to increase its exports by almost 110%. The most important importers in the EU are Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.

EU Brazil nut imports, in mt

Partner

2024

2025

Diff.

Bolivia

3,152

3,217

2.1%

Peru

182

382

109.9%

Brazil

102

75

-26.5%

Others

1

12

1100.0%

Total

3,437

3,686

7.2%

DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/01-11/05

08012100+08012200 Brazil nuts, shelled and in-shell

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