Cashews: headwinds for demand

Currency challenges in India

Farmers have nearly completed harvesting in India. In the northern parts of the state of Andhra Pradesh, less than 10% of the crop is left, and this final batch is of lower quality, costing around USD 1.68/kg. Mangalore’s harvest will completely wrap up within a week, with current wet RCN prices ranging between USD1.26/kg and USD 1.37/kg. In the global market, West African RCN prices have dropped from their recent peaks with high-quality stocks from Guinea-Bissau and Senegal trading at around USD 1670/mt, while lower-quality batches have fallen significantly to USD 1350-1480/mt.

This drop in global prices is heavily offset by currency challenges, as the Indian rupee has fallen by over 7% this year and is currently hovering at around 95 against the USD. This weak exchange rate should render RCN imports much more expensive for Indian processors. The domestic market for processed cashew kernels has remained slow to steady, with buying demand showing no major changes and prices holding completely firm across all grades. Export prices are fixed.

Quality an issue in Côte d’Ivoire

In Côte d’Ivoire, the cashew market is moving slowly, and prices are dropping as the harvest season is coming to an end. This year’s production will just range slightly below last year’s record of 1.5 million mt as stakeholders emphasise. International exporters are being very careful; they prefer to buy cashews only after they have arrived at the port and have passed strict quality checks. Because lower-quality cashews are being rejected at the ports, local buyers are afraid to purchase large amounts. As a result, the prices paid directly to farmers have dropped from USD 0.50-0.67/kg to USD 0.33-0.63/kg. The overall quality of the nuts has decreased. In addition, the prices for cashews safely delivered to the port have dipped slightly to USD 0.75-0.76/kg.

Trouble finding containers in Nigeria

Harvesting is nearly finished in Nigeria. Traders project this year’s production at 370,000 mt, which is up on last year’s 355,000 mt. There are very few cashews left and their quality has dropped. After recent rains farmers are now focusing on planting new crops. While cashew prices are still steady at USD 1.00/kg, they might drop soon because many exporters have stopped buying as they are wrapping up their business for the season.

At the same time, shipping goods through the ports remains a major problem. Exporters are struggling to find empty cargo containers, and fewer ships are arriving at the Lagos ports, forcing some shipping companies to share vessels. On top of that, there are long queues of trucks waiting to enter the ports. These delays are causing great concern for exporters who are running out of time to ship their goods and meet their business agreements.

Flat global production

Production will also rise from 290,000 mt to 300,000 mt in Guinea-Bissau as traders report with below average yields partially being offset by new trees turning productive. This is also the case in Nigeria. Quality issues, however, prevail in West Africa and will weigh on global output in 2026/2027, which is expected to be flat on last year. Africa is becoming a real powerhouse for production and processing. In the past two years processing has risen more than threefold exceeding 700,000 mt and production has risen from 3 million mt to 3.9 million mt.

On top of this, production is on the rise in Cambodia as the second largest producing country and should reach 965,000 mt this year as opposed to 930,000 mt in 2025/2026. Yet, production will remain flat at 730,000 mt in India and at 310,000 mt in Vietnam.

Headwinds for demand

While tariffs, inflation and weak consumer confidence along with weight-loss drugs prompted a sharp decline in US imports in the second half of 2025, there are some indications of a recent recovery. Cashews have the advantage of being regarded as a good protein source and plant-based alternative for dairy products. In Europe, demand has reached moderate growth levels with prices as key driver. Cheaper snack alternatives including peanuts or crisps are causing competition to turn fierce.

Geopolitical tensions and high logistics costs have disrupted last year's sharp rise in demand in in the Middle East, particularly in Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. According to traders there is, however, hope that these tensions may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand has also risen sharply in India and in China in recent years. Growth has, however, slowed a bit in China.

Expectation is that prices will remain firm or rise slightly in the next few months. Developments in the Middle East will, however, remain important.

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