Cashews: Trump’s tariff loop profits China
June 23, 2025 at 10:57 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Companies forced to shut in India
As The Times of India reports low cashew kernel prices and sluggish domestic demand have forced processing units in the state of Andrah Pradesh to close for two weeks. Workers were left without wages. Average domestic cashew kernel rates have recently declined by USD 70/kg, which has hit local processors hard.
Contrary to this, export prices have risen steadily since February with W320 kernels quoted at a three-year high for this time of year.
|
Cashews, India |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
LWP |
6,730 |
|
SWP |
6,065 |
|
W320 |
8,075 |
|
W450 |
7,360 |
|
FOB India |
|
China profits from US tariff loop
Processors in Vietnam are still in the loop about US tariffs. At present, a 46% import tariff prevails for products from Vietnam. Excitement, however, emerged over the weekend after Bloomberg reported that trade delegations were about to reach a deal, in which the tariff would be lowered to 20-25%. The current state of flux has dealt a blow to Vietnam’s exports to the USA. As data from the Department of Customs shows, exports to the USA continued to decline in May with monthly shipments only totalling 17.360 mt, which is 10% down on May 2024. In terms of value, shipments by contrast rose by 15% to USD 117.6 million. Vietnam’s cashew nut exports to the USA have in total dropped by 22% in volume to 59,750 mt in the first five months of the year. In terms of value exports have, however, flatlined at USD 406.9 million as compared with the same period last year.
China has replaced the USA as leading destination for Vietnam. In May, monthly exports surged by 44% in volume to 24,620 mt and by a stunning 67% in value to USD 156.4 million as compared with May last year. At 65,970 mt worth USD 414.5 million Vietnam’s year-on-year cashew nut exports to China have climbed by 22% in terms of volume and by 41% in terms of value in the first five months of 2025.
The country’s total exports reached 276,760 mt worth USD 1.9 billion between January and May 2025. Although the export volume has thereby declined by 5% as compared with the same period last year, the export value has risen by 19%. Besides China and the USA, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates and Germany are also important destinations. While shipments to the United Arab Emirates have also gained strongly this year, exports to the Netherlands are fraught with challenges.
Demand up in Europe
As Stratamarkets report spot market demand has, however, increased in Europe with importers needing to stock up after refusing to pay high prices earlier in the year. The strong euro is also feeding into trading activities. Contrary to this, demand has slowed in the US with consumers being cautious and due to inflationary pressure. Processors in Vietnam are, in addition, well stocked on raw cashew nuts and do not require supplies from Africa at present.
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- price chart, cashew kernels, W320, India
- price chart, cashew kernels, W450, India
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