Desiccated cococnuts: El Niño to have quite an impact
August 12, 2026 at 11:32 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Desiccated still fixed
International export prices for desiccated coconut remained largely unchanged for the 25th consecutive week, according to T.M. Duché. A downward trend, however, persists in the domestic market in the Philippines indicating that export prices may also fall. Coconut supplies remain heavily weather-dependent.
Coconut oil prices have continued to fall, they have been trading at a discount to palm kernel oil for the fifth week running. As a result, coconut oil has become more competitive than lauric oil, its alternative. Copra prices showed mixed trends. Although lower prices were reported in some areas, the national average has fallen since last week and price levels range well below last year.
Freight rates in the container shipping sector have stabilised following several declines. On the Shanghai-Rotterdam route, which is relevant for Europe, they have, however, remained unchanged and should remain so in the short term. Challenges prevail for the market including tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty over US tariffs and bottlenecks at Asian ports and the capacity management practices of shipping lines. Several shipping lines are also introducing emergency fuel surcharges following the renewed unrest in the Middle East.
El Niño becoming more relevant
On top of this, the intensifying El Niño weather phenomenon may affect production later this year and in 2027, which will counteract a fall in prices. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reports that there is currently a weak to moderate El Niño, which should persist into the first half of 2027. In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the ongoing and intensifying weather phenomenon, as well as reduced rainfall over the Philippines and Indonesia. Below-average rainfall is expected in numerous regions of the Philippines in November, including key coconut-growing areas. Actual rainfall over the past week varied by region. Luzon and the Visayas recorded slight increases, whereas Mindanao was drier than last week. Prolonged dry conditions until the end of 2026 could increase the risk of lower coconut yields and tighter raw material supplies in 2027.
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Desiccated coconuts |
|
|
Quality |
EUR/mt |
|
High fat, fine, Indonesia |
2,500 |
|
High fat, medium, Vietnam |
2,550 |
|
High fat, fine, Philippines |
2,750 |
|
FCA EMP |
|
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