Flaxseed: revised estimates
August 5, 2026 at 3:19 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
High stock levels predominate
Canadian flaxseed prices have stabilised as Rayglen Commodities report. Bids mainly range at CAD 15.00-16.00/bu, but buyers are becoming increasingly hard to find, as many have already covered their short-term requirements. Drought does not present a major risk in Canada this year, unlike in some European countries. By contrast, high stock levels in China – which have reached their highest since 2023 – continue to weigh on the market. Stocks have also risen in the European Union, weighing on demand. In France, periods of extreme heat could affect production, although this has not yet been fully reflected in the current crop estimates. In Europe, the spot market prices for brown flaxseed are fixed at EUR 0.79/kg DDP Germany.
Lower supplies in 2026/2027
For the 2025/2026 marketing year, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates total Canadian supply at 599,000 mt – the highest level in five years. Main drivers were increased sowing and record yields. Domestic consumption is estimated at 89,000 mt, which may be 24% more than the previous year but still features below the five-year average of 108,000 mt. Statistics Canada has revised exports upwards to 280,000 mt. End-of-season stocks are expected to rise to 230,000 mt, which is well above the average for recent years. Despite the higher supply, the average price forecast stands at a higher CAD 620/mt.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates the area sown for 2026/27 at 263,000 ha. Alberta recorded the sharpest increase in area (+78%), whereas the area sown in Saskatchewan remained virtually unchanged at 217,000 ha and Manitoba witnessed a reduction to 10,000 ha (-29%). Due to the smaller area sown as compared with the previous estimate of 305,000 ha, the production forecast has been revised downwards to 350,000 mt. Total supply will also range slightly lower.
Domestic consumption will rise to 105,000 mt, reaching a five-year average. Exports are forecast at 275,000 mt, slightly below last year’s figure, but would still range 20% above average. Carry-over stocks will fall by 9% to 210,000 mt. The average price forecast has been raised to CAD 625/mt, which is also CAD 5/mt higher than in the current season.
|
Flaxseed, Canada |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
204,000 |
251,000 |
23.0% |
251,000 |
263,000 |
4.8% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
201,000 |
249,000 |
23.9% |
249,000 |
259,000 |
4.0% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
1.28 |
1.82 |
42.2% |
1.82 |
1.35 |
-25.8% |
|
Production (mt) |
258,000 |
454,000 |
76.0% |
454,000 |
350,000 |
-22.9% |
|
Imports (mt) |
8,000 |
10,000 |
25.0% |
10,000 |
10,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supply (mt) |
431,000 |
599,000 |
39.0% |
599,000 |
590,000 |
-1.5% |
|
Exports (mt) |
228,000 |
280,000 |
22.8% |
280,000 |
275,000 |
-1.8% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
69,000 |
89,000 |
29.0% |
89,000 |
105,000 |
18.0% |
|
Carry-over supply (mt) |
134,000 |
230,000 |
71.6% |
230,000 |
210,000 |
-8.7% |
|
Avg CAD/mt |
630 |
620 |
-1.6% |
620 |
625 |
0.8% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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