Hazelnuts: Price drops fail to attract buyers
May 23, 2017 at 12:07 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Lofty export estimates
Apart from the good production results, market players are also expecting an increase in the export volume, both in this season and in the coming season. To reach the predictions of 240,000 mt for 2016/17, another 60,000 mt would have to be exported in the next few weeks, i.e., another third of the exports to date. In 2017/18, exports are even supposed to rise to 285,000 mt, but traders only consider this to be possible if the price level were to drop much lower than the current level.
Too many factors like the actual yields, the exchange rate or the extent to which the TMO will purchase hazelnuts from the upcoming crop make it difficult to issue an accurate estimate. Buyers are also not being particularly venturesome.
Modest expectations
The International Nuts and Dried Fruits Congress 2017 (INC) took place in the Indian city of Chennai last weekend. Among other things, the estimates for this year's hazelnut crop were announced. Over the last few weeks, initial estimates of 700,000-750,000 mt for the Turkish hazelnut production were already circulating on the market. The estimates announced during the INC were, however, not quite so optimistic. Market players also disagree on the corrected figures for the 2016 crop, as strongly fluctuating numbers from 400,000-550,000 mt were heard in the last few months.
Some market players are convinced that the official estimates are oriented on the lower potential limits and that there is definitely lots of room on the upside. Altogether, a bigger global hazelnut crop is expected than last year, in addition to surpluses of 80,000-100,000 mt.
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Top 5 hazelnut producers |
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|
Country |
2017 |
2016 |
|
Turkey |
670,000 |
500,000 |
|
Italy |
100,000 |
130,000 |
|
USA |
34,000 |
39,000 |
|
Georgia |
60,000 |
60,000 |
|
Azerbaijan |
45,000 |
50,000 |
|
World |
992,500 |
862,309 |
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Source: INC 2017 |
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