Hazelnuts: “Prices will remain high”
January 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Which were the main difficulties faced by the hazelnut market in 2025? What has changed compared to the last two years?
The main issue in Turkey in the 2025/2026 marketing year was tight supply due to frost damage, low quality as well as high production and financing costs due to the running inflation in Turkey. These factors caused prices to rise sharply which affected buyer purchasing decisions. It also caused default on shipments.
Geopolitical tensions are an ongoing issue.
How did the import tariffs on shipments to the USA impact the hazelnut trade?
Geopolitical tensions have affected the Turkish hazelnut market mainly by causing uncertainties in financial markets.
As the USA applied only 10% on Turkey origin products, exports from Turkey have not been affected much. On another note, tariffs, particularly retaliatory tariffs from China on US hazelnuts, have impacted the hazelnut trade between the USA and China. The tariffs made US hazelnuts less competitive in the Chinese market, leading to a decrease in export quantities.
Were there any noticeable drawbacks on the trade with Russia when it comes to hazelnuts? Or did Turkish traders actually benefit from the trade restrictions imposed by Western countries?
The export quantity to Russia was 3700 mt in the 2023/2024 season whereas it went down to 2800 mt in 2024/2025 season which can be related to payment difficulties Russian buyers have been facing due to restrictions.
Once again commodity prices have risen significantly in many markets, some being at all-time highs or close to. Inflation and higher production costs are leaving their mark; hazelnut prices are extremely high as well. Do you think market players will just have to accept this as the new normal?
I think yes, it is the new normal. As Turkey's inflation is expected to remain high for the next two years and the carry-over stocks from the 2025/2026 marketing year will be low, prices will likely remain high in the next season also. There is persistent demand growth from value‑added products, hence the supply-demand dynamics point to higher price levels in the coming years.
Looking at the current market situation, what challenges might the hazelnut market face in the upcoming year 2026?
Market players cannot count on returning to the old price levels given the conditions mentioned. They should plan for elevated prices along with potential weather shocks. They should follow the markets more closely to make long term contracts at the right time, consider origin diversification and even product reformulation to manage risks.
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