Blue poppy seeds: “The 2026 season may start with almost empty warehouses”

Which were the main difficulties faced by the blue poppy seed market in 2025? What has changed compared to the last two years?

The beginning of 2025 was marked by a slight increase in prices. At the end of 2024, the market situation seemed stable, and no significant price growth after the New Year had been expected. However, demand was so strong that prices increased by up to 20%. Once again, it became clear how difficult it is to predict the price development of blue poppy seeds.

As the harvest progressed, prices began to decline due to a combination of lower market demand and a higher total crop (approx. 31,000 mt). Prices reached their lowest level by the end of October and have remained at this level until today, although recent weeks have shown the first signs of increasing demand ahead of the new year. Some market players have already started building inventories as a speculative strategy, based on expectations of potential price growth in 2026.

In the Czech Republic, 37,978 hectares of poppy seeds were sown, the highest figure in recent years (a year-on-year increase of 1,367 ha). The share of winter poppy continued to grow at the expense of spring varieties – partly due to increasingly frequent periods of drought, where winter poppy performs more reliably. The harvest proceeded smoothly, yields per hectare were slightly above average, and the overall quality (both sensory and analytical) was significantly better than in 2024.

Geopolitical tensions are an ongoing issue.

How did the import tariffs on shipments to the USA impact the blue poppy seed trade?

Trade with the USA does take place; however, its volume is marginal in the context of Czech blue poppy seeds, meaning that US import tariffs have no substantial impact on this segment.

Were there any noticeable drawbacks in trade with Russia regarding blue poppy seeds?

Russia has historically been one of the largest buyers of Czech blue poppy seeds. The war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly affected this trade. Exports still continue, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding future demand as well as the payment reliability of Russian partners.

Additional complications arise from cross-border money transfers from Russia to the EU and from increasingly frequent delays at EU borders, where trucks may wait for days or even weeks. This increases transportation costs, extends delivery times, and reduces Russian buyers’ willingness to purchase Czech blue poppy seeds.

The main challenges are therefore:

- long payment terms and elevated payment risk

- severe logistical delays and complications at EU borders

- Increased transportation costs

Once again, commodity prices have risen significantly across many markets. Inflation and higher production costs are leaving their mark; the blue poppy seed market remains one of few exceptions. Do you think market players will profit from these developments?

Blue poppy seeds are a “low-volume” commodity where inflation and increasing production costs do not play as significant a role as they do for other crops. The primary factor influencing the market is always the total crop volume. For this reason, sowing area estimates and crop forecasts are closely monitored, as they most reliably indicate future price developments.

However, inflation and higher input costs do manifest themselves in the final consumer products made from poppy seeds – that is, in the processed goods purchased by end consumers.

Looking at the current market situation, what challenges might the blue poppy seed market face in 2026?

Sowing areas for 2026 are expected to increase slightly compared to 2025. Prices of other major crops (rapeseed, cereals, sugar beet, etc.) are currently at very low levels, and at average yield levels these crops are often economically loss-making. This trend motivates farmers to expand the acreage dedicated to poppy seeds.

It also appears that most of the 2025 crop will be sold out, meaning the 2026 season may start with almost empty warehouses. This could influence market dynamics right at the start of the new marketing year.

Czech agriculture, however, faces a broader structural challenge. Due to the legacy of large-scale farming and the accelerating impacts of climate change, it is necessary to significantly improve the landscape’s ecological resilience – through measures such as water retention, increasing biodiversity, reducing both wind and water erosion, revitalising drainage systems, and enhancing the structural diversity of the landscape. These measures are essential for addressing drought, flash flooding, and soil degradation, and they represent a key prerequisite for ensuring long-term, stable poppy seed production in the Czech Republic.