Macadamias: concerns over El Niño and possible US tariffs
November 12, 2026 at 1:16 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Revised crop estimates
With downward revisions issued for China, Guatemala and Malawi the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) has reduced the total in-shell basis 2026 crop estimate to 389,950 mt as compared with the 391,738 mt anticipated in July. Kernel production stands at 104,515 mt.
By contrast, the crop in South Africa was better than the 95,000 mt projected in July. Production ranges 32% higher than last year. Expectation is that the country will export around 50-55% of the crop as inshells, mainly to China. Concerns are, however, being raised for next year’s crop. Issue are the wet weather conditions prevailing in the September-October flowering period, followed by unusually hot and dry conditions as the INC highlights.
China’s production fell well short of the projected 108,000 mt in July with the most recent figure marking a 3% decline on last year. Issue was drought in March to April, followed by heavy rain in July to August.
Projections for Australia stand firm at 56,888 mt. Arrivals continued longer than usual in New South Wales due to weather-related disruptions and longer withholding periods due to orchard chemicals. El Niño also presents a higher risk of heat and drought during flowering and nut set in August through to December.
For Kenya, El Niño may bring excessive rain and floods, which may impact drying in April to September and affect the quality of next year’s crop. A clearer idea on potential crop damages caused by El Niño will emerge between March and May.
|
Global macadamia production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2025 |
2026 |
Diff. |
|
South Africa |
81,139 |
107,212 |
32.1% |
|
China |
98,000 |
95,000 |
-3.1% |
|
Australia |
43,800 |
56,888 |
29.9% |
|
Kenya |
51,850 |
54,500 |
5.1% |
|
USA |
15,500 |
16,600 |
7.1% |
|
Guatemala |
11,000 |
11,500 |
4.5% |
|
Malawi |
10,000 |
11,500 |
15.0% |
|
Vietnam |
8,000 |
9,000 |
12.5% |
|
Brazil |
4,500 |
6,500 |
44.4% |
|
Colombia |
1,150 |
1,250 |
|
|
Others |
18,200 |
20,000 |
9.9% |
|
Total |
343,139 |
389,950 |
13.6% |
|
Macadamias South Africa, China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs, Australian Macadamia Society, Brazilian Macadamia Association, and other INC sources, 3.5% nut-in-shell moisture content |
|||
South Africa confronted with uncertainty in US market
As the Trump Administration has recently decided to exclude South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as of January a high degree of uncertainty prevails. At present, it is unclear in how far macadamia nuts will be affected and if a 12.5% import tariff may apply for shipments to the US. Anticipation is that this will weigh on US demand as suppliers highlight.
El Niño with limited impact on prices
Despite the concerns over next years crop, prices have dropped for supplies from Kenya and have remained relatively firm for shipments from South Africa since September. Issue simply is that demand is still very much subdued. Given the current unsold stocks expectation, therefore, is that prices will only climb moderately, if El Niño causes extensive crop damages.
|
Macadamias, 2026 crop |
|
|
South Africa (pasteurised) |
|
|
Style |
USD/kg |
|
1 (+17mm) |
12.10 |
|
4L (+13mm) |
6.90 |
|
4 (10-15mm) |
5.90 |
|
Kenya (raw kernels) |
|
|
Style |
USD/kg |
|
1L (16-20 mm) |
12.00 |
|
4L (>13 mm) |
6.35 |
|
4R/S (9-13 mm) |
5.80 |
|
Kenya (organic raw kernels) |
|
|
Style |
USD/kg |
|
1L |
12.00 |
|
4L (13+mm) |
6.50 |
|
4R |
5.80 |
|
Guatemala (raw kernels) |
|
|
Style |
USD/kg |
|
1L (16-20mm) |
13.00 |
|
2 (13+mm) |
10.00 |
|
4s (10-13mm) |
7.00 |
|
CFR EMP, Nov-Jan, price indications |
|
View more
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, grains, oilseeds and more
View related articles
