Macadamias: illegal smuggling is a big problem in Kenya
May 11, 2026 at 3:46 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Encouraging crop estimates
At the start of the calendar year, macadamia prices remained relatively firm due to limited carry-in inventories as Olam reports in the "Global Nuts Market & Crop Update". With the start of the harvests in the main growing regions of South Africa, Kenya and Australia, the situation is now easing somewhat. Demand in China will also be a key driver. Expectation is that prices will remain firm for now.
South Africa has started the 2026 harvest season with cautious optimism. Current production estimates for this year’s in-shell crop stand at 93,000–95,000 mt, which is clearly up on last year's 83,400 mt. Persistent rainfall in the main growing regions is, however, giving rise to concerns over operational processes and quality. China’s abandoning of import duties for South African in-shell macadamia nuts and kernels may also boost demand. Import duties previously stood at 12%. Many buyers are still hesitant at this stage and are waiting for further price reductions.
In Australia, improved flowering and maturity are raising hopes of a better crop. Initial reports indicate that the nuts are developing healthily. Yet, yields and quality will very much depend on the weather conditions during the harvest. In-shell production estimates range at 56,000–58,000 mt, which is much higher than last year’s 40,000 mt.
Early assessments were much better than expected in Kenya. Adequate rainfall has helped nut development. According to estimates released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in March production will climb to 51,850 mt as compared with last year's 47,500 mt. The export ban for inshells is still in place, intention being to promote domestic processing. Any changes to this policy will affect supplies.
Unfair prices in Kenya
In a press release issued on 30 April the Macadamia Nut Processors Association of Kenya (MACNUT) has warned local macadamia farmers against selling to brokers at throwaway prices. This followed reports that some traders were buying nuts for as little as Ksh 30/kg (USD 0.20/kg), even though the government-set minimum price is Ksh 100/kg (USD 0.68/kg). Smuggling of in-shell nuts is also a concern as the same brokers are involved in this illegal practice, which distorts the market und undermines legal trade. The association has called on the government to intensify prosecution and enforcement.
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Macadamias, Kenya |
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Kernels |
EUR/kg |
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Style 1 |
14.25 |
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Style 2 |
12.75 |
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FCA NL, reference prices |
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