Mustard seeds: production result remains questionable
June 12, 2025 at 9:12 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Higher prices expected
Contrary to the hopes of some market players, the sobering cultivation forecast seems to be confirmed. According to data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, just 117,000 hectares of mustard seeds will be sown compared to last year, which would be just under half of the 2024/2025 acreage. Moreover, lower yields have been forecast from the outset and unfavourable weather conditions could exacerbate this situation. In mid-May, it was still very dry in the main growing areas, and only in recent weeks has there been some much-needed rainfall to provide the plants with moisture. Canadian mustard seed production is currently estimated at 85,000 mt, which would be 55.7% less than last year. Thanks to carry-over stocks from the current season, a total of 244,000 mt of mustard seeds could be available on the market in 2025/2026 (-15.9% compared to last year).
Prices on the Canadian mustard seed market are currently stable for both old and new crop, with little trading taking place, mostly initiated by growers looking to clear storage capacity ahead of the new crop. Yellow mustard seeds are trading at prices of CAD 0.44-0.45/lb, while Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimates average prices for the new season at CAD 870/mt, up 2.4% year-on-year.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
258,000 |
245,000 |
-5.0% |
245,000 |
117,000 |
-52.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
251,000 |
243,000 |
-3.2% |
243,000 |
115,000 |
-52.7% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.68 |
0.79 |
16.2% |
0.79 |
0.74 |
-6.3% |
|
Production (mt) |
171,000 |
192,000 |
12.3% |
192,000 |
85,000 |
-55.7% |
|
Imports (mt) |
16,000 |
9,000 |
-43.8% |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
227,000 |
290,000 |
27.8% |
290,000 |
244,000 |
-15.9% |
|
Exports (mt) |
96,000 |
95,000 |
-1.0% |
95,000 |
95,000 |
0.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
42,000 |
45,000 |
7.1% |
45,000 |
44,000 |
-2.2% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
88,000 |
150,000 |
70.5% |
150,000 |
105,000 |
-30.0% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
1,280 |
850 |
-33.6% |
850 |
870 |
2.4% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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EU increases imports from Ukraine by 28%
Since the beginning of the 2024/2025 season (01/07/2024-08/06/2025), a total of 73,056 mt of mustard seeds worth EUR 52.384 million have been imported into the EU from third countries, meaning that the import volume has fallen by 29.5% year-on-year, with the import value even declining by 40.6%. This is partly due to the fact that imports from Russia (-73.0% to 15,140 mt) have fallen significantly, but shipments from Canada have also shrunk by 11.7% to 20,939 mt. In contrast, imports from countries such as Ukraine (+28.1% to 24,439 mt), Kazakhstan (+165.4% to 9,787 mt) and Moldova (+868.4% to 2,208 mt) have risen massively.
The most important buyer countries within the EU, such as Germany (-34.8% to 24,890 mt), Poland (-46.6% to 18,360 mt) and Belgium (-35.8% to 11,460 mt), all significantly reduced their imports. In contrast, the Netherlands increased its imports by 97.4% to 6,770 mt.
|
EU mustard seed imports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Ukraine |
19,082 |
24,439 |
28.1% |
|
Canada |
23,720 |
20,939 |
-11.7% |
|
Russia |
56,042 |
15,140 |
-73.0% |
|
Kazakhstan |
3,688 |
9,787 |
165.4% |
|
Moldova |
228 |
2,208 |
868.4% |
|
Others |
836 |
543 |
-35.0% |
|
Total |
103,596 |
73,056 |
-29.5% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/07-08/06 12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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