Olive oil: January frost could affect yields
January 29, 2026 at 11:34 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Production in 2024/25 higher than expected
Better climatic conditions during the harvest season and higher yields in regions such as the Aegean and South-Eastern Anatolia meant that Turkish olive oil production in 2024/25 was significantly better than had long been assumed. Total production is estimated to have reached 505,000 mt, which is a whopping 58% above average. In the current 2025/26 season, however, production is expected to reach only 290,000 mt, which would represent a 43% decline compared to last year's level.
Turkey exports an average of around 96,000 mt of olive oil per year, and this season's result is also expected to be only slightly higher, at an estimated 100,000 mt. In contrast, the 2024/25 crop meant that exports totalled 160,000 mt. The majority of exports took place in the last three months of the season, which, according to the Aegean Exporters Union, was due to later contract calls, the smaller crop in Spain and the easing of the temporary strict export restrictions. Domestic demand in Turkey amounts to 170,000 mt per year, accounting for 5.5% of global consumption. In the 2024/25 season, domestic demand even reached 200,000 mt.
Global olive oil production is expected to reach 3.44 million mt in the 2025/26 season. Table olive production is estimated at 2.986 million mt and is expected to increase in Portugal and Egypt, while declines are expected in Spain, Turkey, Jordan and Argentina. Meanwhile, experts predict a higher olive oil production in Italy, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, while a decline is forecast in Turkey, Jordan, Argentina and Spain.
Frosty start to the year
At the beginning of January, temperatures in the growing regions dropped to between -7°C and -11°C. The frosty weather may have caused lower yields this year, particularly for the Domat and Uslu varieties. As a result, olive farmers were reminded of the importance of soil health and the appropriate use of fertilisers.
According to the latest figures from Tariş, the price of olive oil with an acidity of 5%, which was still TRY 140/kg in April 2025, has risen to TRY 305/kg, which should make olive cultivation much more attractive for growers again.
EU exports above last year's level
Even almost four months after the start of the season, shipments from EU countries to third countries remain at a significantly higher level than last year. In the period from 1 October 2025 to 25 January 2026, the EU shipped a total of 182,228 mt of olive oil (EU categories 1 to 5, treated and untreated) worth EUR 1.042 billion to overseas countries. This represents an 11.7% increase in export volume, while the export value fell by around 22.5%. The average export price in the first four months of the 2025/26 season was EUR 5.72/kg, compared to EUR 8.25/kg in the same period last year.
At 95,731 mt, more than half of EU exports came from Spain, followed by Italy (56,742 mt), Portugal (20,452 mt) and Greece (4,561 mt). Around 29% of EU shipments, or 53,146 mt, went to the USA, with other important buyer countries being Brazil (20,508 mt), the United Kingdom (17,701 mt) and Korea (10,166 mt).
Meanwhile, EU imports during the above-mentioned period amounted to 20,881 mt of olive oil worth EUR 79.563 million. With 12,349 mt, 59.1% of shipments came from Tunisia, while Turkey exported only 190 mt of olive oil to the EU – around 66% less than in the same period last year.
|
EU olive oil exports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Spain |
76,111 |
95,731 |
25.8% |
|
Italy |
58,730 |
56,742 |
-3.4% |
|
Portugal |
17,140 |
20,452 |
19.3% |
|
Greece |
6,773 |
4,561 |
-32.7% |
|
Belgium |
1,287 |
1,461 |
13.5% |
|
France |
1,109 |
1,107 |
-0.2% |
|
Germany |
852 |
913 |
7.2% |
|
Others |
1,072 |
1,261 |
17.6% |
|
Total |
163,074 |
182,228 |
11.7% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/10-25/01 |
|||
View related articles
