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Olive oil: massive price increases expected

January 24, 2024 at 12:40 PM , Der AUDITOR
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IZMIR. Prices for Turkish olives and olive oil have already tripled year-on-year, and market experts forecast further significant increases. The main reason for this is the decline in production in the growing countries.

Slump in production

According to the Turkish Statistical Institute TÜİK, olive production in Turkey fell significantly in 2023. While just under 1.74 million mt of olives were produced in 2021, this figure increased significantly to around 2.98 million mt in the following year 2022. According to current estimates, production then plummeted last year to just 1.35 million mt, which would correspond to a decline of 54%. These estimates have not yet been confirmed, but market players report that declines in yields have been observed. However, depending on the variety and the effects of the climate in the respective growing regions, there are also farmers who report a good crop; their cultivation methods also play a role in this.

More trees bear fruit

Meanwhile, the Manisa Provincial Directorate of Agriculture and Forestry announced that the olive harvest in Manisa, the most important olive-growing state in Turkey, has been completed. According to the National Olive and Olive Oil Council, almost 24.3 million trees bore fruit. The 2023 crop is expected to amount to around 251,115 mt in Manisa alone. The total number of trees bearing fruit in Turkey in the 2023/24 season is expected to be 170.8 million, which is 3.1% more than in the previous season. In contrast, the average yield per tree is expected to have declined to 7.9 kg.

Prices could double again

Domestic prices for fresh olives have risen significantly: while they were around TRY 30-40/kg last year, they have now tripled to TRY 80-120/kg.  At TRY 300-350/kg, olive oil is also significantly more expensive than last year, when prices were still around TRY 100/kg. Prices are expected to rise further in the coming days, and not just in Turkey. The problem of declining production can be observed in producing countries around the world, and olive oil prices in particular are linked to the acidity, method of extraction and quality of the oil. Market experts predict that the price of Turkish olive oil could climb to as much as 600 TRY/kg.

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