Peanuts: Argentina remains the EU’s main supplier

Prices continue to rise

Prices for Indian peanuts remain on an upward trend and are being supported by several factors. In Uttar Pradesh, the area sown is not expected to exceed last year’s level, as around 30% of farmers are growing black lentils instead of peanuts due to the weather conditions. As a result, production is likely to remain at last season’s level.

The market is receiving additional support from the announcement of further government purchases in the coming season. At the same time, farmers are expecting better prices on local markets. Furthermore, government agencies have raised their bids at auctions, which is dampening demand from the oil industry due to the price differentials.

Further price rises possible

Demand from the southern Indian states of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh has risen, as traders estimate that the crop there is significantly below expectations. As a result, exporters from these regions are buying peanuts in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh.

Market players also expect Indonesia’s final import quota to be announced by the end of July, as well as larger purchases of peanut oil by China in the coming weeks. A further moderate rise in prices is anticipated over the coming months. At the same time, the fall in crude oil prices – and palm oil prices in particular – is limiting the upside potential, as higher imports are expected from August onwards.

Sowing completed in China

Peanut sowing in China has been completed, according to experts at HT NUTS. Market players estimate that the acreage will remain largely unchanged compared with last year. Chinese exports remain limited due to the high price of edible peanuts on the domestic market. At the same time, exports are being held back by subdued demand on the international market. Peanut futures are showing an upward trend, whilst domestic prices remain at a high level. Chinese buyers are therefore continuing to source peanuts from South America, which are intended for processing into peanut oil.

Lower acreage in the USA

Peanut acreage in the US is expected to fall by around 20% for the coming season, as many farmers switch to more competitive crops such as cotton. Recent rainfall has improved sowing conditions in several growing regions and alleviated earlier concerns about drought, whilst the situation in other regions remains difficult. Prices are currently showing a firm trend and could be influenced by further changes in the weather, according to the market experts. At the same time, domestic demand remains subdued. Many growers are therefore holding back the remaining quantities of the 2025 crop in the hope of higher prices. Furthermore, peanuts are once again being exported to China; however, buyers there remain cautious due to the risk of tariffs being reimposed after contracts have been signed.

High moisture content in Argentina

The harvest in Argentina has picked up pace thanks to drier weather in the province of Córdoba. At the same time, drying the peanuts poses a major challenge. According to HT NUTS, due to heavy rainfall during the harvest, the peanuts have a significantly higher moisture content, which is prolonging drying times and slowing down the entire processing chain. Exporters without their own drying facilities, in particular, must expect delays. Additional checks for aflatoxins on imports into the European Union from July 2026 are likely to further delay processing.

The supply situation remains tight compared with last season. The acreage has fallen significantly compared with last year, whilst production costs continue to rise. Consequently, exporters are expected to manage their sales cautiously, particularly of table peanuts and larger sizes. This is keeping prices supported. Should the current market situation persist, a further decline in the acreage for the 2027 crop cannot be ruled out.

Limited supply is supporting price levels in Brazil

The new crop in Brazil is up to 25% smaller than initially expected. The acreage and the crop volume are significantly below last season’s levels. Whilst the overall quality is rated as good, the supply of EU-grade peanuts is limited. Processors and exporters continue to show little interest in selling, as current price levels do not sufficiently cover their production costs. Consequently, Argentina remains the most important supplier to the European market in the first half of the year. A further decline in acreage is expected for the coming season. It is also anticipated that Brazilian exports to the EU will remain limited. Price trends are being supported by tight supply and cautious marketing, as HT NUTS further reports.

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