Peanuts: crop size speculations in India
October 7, 2024 at 9:58 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Harvesting starts in India
In India the peanut harvest has started. Early harvest materials may, however, be downgraded to crushing quality due to recent rainfalls. Peak arrivals are expected after mid-October, with a combination of Bold and Java varieties contributing to daily arrivals of over 200,000 bags of inshell peanuts in Gujarat. Although output was initially expected to cross 3.5 million mt in this state, reality is rather that yields come closer to 2.5 million mt. While national production was expected to touch a peak 5 million mt this season, more recent estimates rather predict a crop size of 3.4-3.6 million mt. Each variety follows its own growth cycle, which will shape the overall supply volumes.
Peanuts will continue to move on a downward trajectory in the next few weeks as arrivals will now start to pick up. Other factors will also impact the market. One being that demand for peanut oil will not be excessive in China. Another is the government’s procurement strategy. While the government offered below-market prices of USD 10-12/mt last year, prices will be higher this year with buying expected to start after the festival of Diwali in November.
|
Peanuts, with skin |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
Bold, 40-50 |
1,280 |
|
Bold, 50-60 |
1,240 |
|
Bold, 60-70 |
1,225 |
|
Java, 50-60 |
1,335 |
|
Java, 60-70 |
1,250 |
|
Java, 70-80 |
1,255 |
|
FOB India |
|
Hurricane Helene with sustained impact on US crop
The US peanut crop had already experienced delays prior to Hurricane Helene in September, which further compounded the situation. Given the limited carryover from the 2023 crop, the industry may face significant difficulties in October. Facilities affected by the hurricane are expected to focus on damage assessments and repairs. Expectation is also that other shellers, who have not impacted by the storm, will attempt to compensate for supply chain delays.
Uncertain outlook in Argentina and Brazil
Due to the considerable size of the 2024 crop, a decline in Argentine peanut prices almost seems inevitable in the half of 2025. However, both Argentina and Brazil are currently experiencing drought conditions during the planting of their 2025 crops. While a price decline remains possible, it is not certain, and if it occurs, it is expected to be gradual. No additional supply from the 2024 crop is forecast for the EU market, contributing to an uncertain outlook.
The Brazilian market is currently seeing an oversupply of non-EU peanuts, while the quality of peanuts meeting EU standards remains limited. Furthermore, the export demand for peanut oil has been notably weak. Ongoing drought conditions continue to affect the planting of the 2025 crop, posing additional challenges to production.
Mixed news in China
Although figures presented at the most recent peanut and sesame seed conference in China indicated that production would increase by 20%, local reports in the Shandong Province are less optimistic. The overall peanut crop is expected to be fair, especially when compared to the previous two seasons. Yield reductions of 15-20% are being attributed to dry conditions during the critical stages of flowering and pegging, followed by excessive rainfall, which further impacted production.
View more
- price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
- price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, oilseeds and many more products
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