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Pepper: global crop estimates 2021

July 12, 2021 4:08 PM, Der AUDITOR
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HANOI. The Vietnamese exporters of PTEXIM have published their estimates of global pepper production for 2021 - and they look rather optimistic.

Brazil struggles with drought

In their newsletter, the Vietnamese exporters of PTEXIM report on the current situation on the global pepper market and announce the crop estimates for 2021. The situation in Brazil shows a mixed picture. Although the South American country is expected to experience a record drought between June and September, the likes of which have not been seen for decades, market players are nevertheless expecting production increases. While 90,000 mt of pepper was harvested in 2020, production could rise to 95,000 mt this year. This is mainly due to the significantly increased acreage.

In Indonesia, pepper production is expected to reach 55,000-60,000 mt, a figure not noticeably different from recent years. Since domestic consumption is only about 30,000 mt, another 30,000 mt are available for export. Meanwhile, in Malaysia, farmers expect to harvest about 20,000 mt of pepper from an area of 13,500 ha. Of this, about 11,000 mt are available for export. The result in Sri Lanka could be a little higher; about 25,000 mt of pepper could be harvested on 20,000 ha.

High consumption in China

The experts from PTEXIM estimate the ratio in China to be completely different. While pepper is grown on 18,500 ha, which corresponds to an estimated harvest of 30,000 mt, domestic consumption is three times as high at about 90,000 mt, so that the country is dependent on a large amount of imports. It obtains this from India, for example: here, about 65,000 mt of pepper will be harvested on 125,000 ha this year, of which about 15,000 mt will be shipped overseas. Vietnam has even higher quantities - market players estimate that about 292,000 mt of pepper will be available here in 2021. This is made up of a harvest of 220,000 mt, surplus stocks of 42,000 mt and imports of around 30,000 mt destined for further processing and re-export.

Pepper consumption on the rise

In summary, estimates for the global pepper crop in 2021 are 538,000 mt, plus surplus stocks of just under 100,000 mt. Analysts expect pepper consumption, which has risen steadily since 2015 - with the pandemic-related exception of 2020 - to climb by 5% in 2021 as well. However, many uncertainties still dominate the market, starting with the further development of the coronavirus pandemic, extreme weather conditions and the shortage of containers, which makes exports significantly more difficult.

Pepper

Type, parity

Price

Black, machine cleaned, 500 g/l, Vietnam, FCA Spain

EUR 3.75/kg

White, double washed, 630 g/l, Vietnam, FCA Spain

EUR 5.25/kg

Black, 500 g/l, FOB India

USD 5.10/kg

Trade sources

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Price chart peppercorns, black, 500 g/l, India
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