Pistachios: less optimistic outlook for 2026/2027
August 3, 2026 at 10:55 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Crop fails expectations in Turkey
With harvesting having started for early green pistachios in Turkey a rather mixed picture is emerging concerning the new crop. Gaziantep as the main growing province appears to have highly variable yields. Orchards affected by the May supercell storm are expected to produce less, while irrigated orchards have generally performed better. In the province of Şanlıurfa the crop will be substantially smaller than last year. Drought and hail will further reduce production.
Official research institutes have not issued reliable nationwide production figures so far and any local estimates circulating in the market should be treated with care. Some highly optimistic exporters are anticipating a crop size of 150,000-200,000 mt, whereas others are rather reckoning with 100,000 mt. All news, however, points to a smaller crop than last year, despite the country entering an on year in the biennial production cycle. Stocks are also low, which indicates that exports will again be limited in 2026/2027, especially since local consumption is high with the chocolate and baklava industry as the main driver. The next two to three weeks will be crucial as the harvest will expand across Gaziantep, Nizip, Oğuzeli, Birecik, and Şanlıurfa.
Exporters report that sales have dropped significantly this year, with the noted exception of pistachio paste, which is growing. Pistachios exports totalled USD 113.339 million in January-June 2025, whereas figures dropped to USD 60.814 million on the same period in 2026. Prices are still fixed.
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Pistachios, Turkey |
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|
2025 crop |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Kernels, raw, perfect green, type 2 |
39.10 |
44.98 |
|
Kernels, raw, super perfect green |
46.00 |
52.92 |
|
Kernels, raw, Meverdi |
36.70 |
42.22 |
|
Inshell, roasted, salted, 34/36 |
24.20 |
27.48 |
|
FOB Mersin, 10 kg vacuum bag, carton boxes |
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More downward revisions
Turkey is not the only main producing country, in which the crop will fall short of expectations. Traders are warning of tight supplies in 2026/2027 and according to Italian-based processor Anastasi production will range lower in several countries than anticipated at the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) congress in May. Current expectation is that total production will range as much as 46% lower than last year at 600,180 mt, whereas a more upbeat 701,050 mt were projected at the INC. Total supplies will also fall by 33%, from 1.31 million mt in 2025/2026 to 875,650 mt in 2026/2027.
In the US, the hottest March on record scorched flowers and is now prompting concerns of a poor harvest. Silver lining, however, is that fewer fruits usually result in good nut sizes. Harvesting will start in September.
Projections for Turkey have been revised downwards to 130,000 mt, which is still better than last year. Yet, the market is waiting for official assessments to be issued.
Projections for Iran have also been revised downwards with the market now anticipating a near 50% decline as compared with last year. Her too, the upside is that the nuts may be bigger in size. As the Iran Pistachio Association (IPA) explains this downturn is driving by interruptions in irrigation due to a national electricity shortage. With the war continuing export restrictions are also still in place.
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Global pistachio production, in-shell basis (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
722,670 |
300,000 |
-58.2% |
|
Turkey |
114,600 |
130,000 |
13.4% |
|
Iran |
225,000 |
115,000 |
-48.9%% |
|
Syria |
13,550 |
30,000 |
121.4% |
|
Spain |
9,500 |
11,500 |
21.1% |
|
Greece |
6,000 |
4,200 |
-30.0% |
|
Italy |
4,700 |
830 |
-22.3% |
|
Australia |
3,000 |
5,500 |
83.3% |
|
Afghanistan |
2,600 |
2,700 |
3.8% |
|
China |
320 |
450 |
40.6% |
|
Total |
1,101,740 |
600,180 |
-45.5% |
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Trade sources via Anastasi Pistachio Farm |
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