Pistachios: a new twist in tariffs, supply and distribution

Outlook negative despite bumper crop

Although the US is poised for a bumper crop in 2025/2026, global production will range 3% lower than in 2024/2025. Issue is the sharp decline in Turkey, which witnessed the highest production on record in 2024/2025. Production here is anti-cyclical with an off year about to start. Frost has also impacted the crop in some producing areas.

In terms of supply the picture is, however, totally different. Global supply should rise by 10%, from 1.332 million mt in 2024/2025 to 1.462 million mt in 2025/2026. Main driver is also Turkey as the country will end the current season with a stunning carryover of 243,400 mt. Pistachio plantings have grown steadily since 2011 and are expected to continue to do so. With production on the rise Turkey will establish itself as reliable partner with consistent supplies and consumers will become more familiar with the Turkish nut.

US production is on track for a bumper crop of 726,400 mt (1.6 billion pounds). Although production is expected to continue to grow in the next five years, the growth rate has already peaked and will remain steady. The industry is targeting India as the hot market for pistachios. Marketing campaigns are also on the way in China.

Iran outperforms US kernels

Providing that weather conditions remain favourable Iran’s production will climb by 10% in 2025. Exports are profiting from the rising demand for pistachio kernels, which will account for an unprecedented 47% of exports this season. Data presented at the INC Congress shows that Iran already outperformed the US in kernel exports in 2023/2024 with a market share of 51%. Projections for September-April 2024/2025 indicate that Iran will hold an even larger market share of 71% and the US only 29%.

In Spain, expectation is that production will more than double to 9,600 mt. Output has surged since 2012, and forecasts are highly encouraging with the country expected to account for 10% of European demand in the next five years.

Weak April for US pistachios

April was a weak month for US pistachio shipments. At 69.417 million pounds total monthly shipments stood 11% lower than the 79.299 million pounds shipped in April last year. Monthly domestic shipments thereby declined sharply by 20% to 17.167 million pounds and exports by 10% to 52.250 million pounds.

Total year-to-date shipments may range 24% lower at 686.968 million pounds than the 903.712 million pounds shipped between September and April 2023/2024, yet they are still higher than the 602.104 million pounds shipped in the last off-year of 2022/2023. Domestic shipments are 6% down on last year at 159.811 million pounds and exports are 28% down on the record volume of 733.512 million pounds shipped in the same period in 2023/2024. The estimated marketable inventory for 2024/2025 stood at 427.351 million pounds as of 30 April 2025.

Will surprise deal revive shipments to China?

Despite exports slumping by 46% and trade relations between the two countries turning difficult, China has remained the number destination for US pistachios this season so far. While reduced production is mainly responsible for the slump in exports and it is difficult to ascertain which impact the recent tensions have had, monthly shipments to China did take a 69% hit in April as they only amounted to 2.454 million pounds.

A new twist was added this week as the retaliatory 125% import tariff in place in China since April for US pistachios was slashed to 10% for a 90-day period in a surprise agreement in Geneva on Monday. The US also agreed to cut the 145% extra import tariff for Chinese products to 30%. While this is a welcome move, which deescalates tensions, a high degree of uncertainty persists as a final deal still needs to be negotiated. The tariff war certainly also explains the hike in exports to Vietnam, which supplies China. Exports to Germany are 9% off this season so far.

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