Prunes: production cannot keep pace with demand
May 14, 2025 at 4:27 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Slight production shortfall compared to last year
The annual congress of the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council took place in Palma, Spain, at the end of last week. The production estimates for various nuts and dried fruits for the 2025/2026 season were also the topic of the various panel discussions.
A total of 205,950 mt of prunes are expected to be produced worldwide in the 2025/2026 season, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous year. Together with the carry-over stocks from last year, a total of 278,570 mt of prunes are expected to be available for the 2025/2026 season. The volume produced at the beginning of this calendar year from countries such as Chile and Argentina will already be counted as part of the 2025/2026 season. According to data published during the INC congress, Chilean production of 74,000 mt is at a similar level to the previous year, while Argentina's result shrank by 28% year-on-year. US production is also expected to fall by 6.7% to 70,00 mt due to unfavourable weather conditions during the flowering period, while France's crop could be around 21% higher at 35,000 mt.
Market experts estimate the average global demand for prunes at 205,000 mt per year, which would be covered by this year's production. However, global production is expected to fall to around 180,000 mt by 2030/2031, which could lead to a supply shortage.
|
Global prune production, in mt |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Chile |
73,390 |
74,000 |
0.8% |
|
USA |
75,000 |
70,000 |
-6.7% |
|
France |
29,000 |
35,000 |
20.7% |
|
Argentina |
25,000 |
18,000 |
-28.0% |
|
Serbia |
4,800 |
5,000 |
4.2% |
|
Italy |
1,600 |
1,600 |
0.0% |
|
Australia |
2,000 |
1,500 |
-25.0% |
|
South Africa |
850 |
850 |
0.0% |
|
Total |
211,640 |
205,950 |
-2.7% |
|
INC, May 2025 |
|||
EU reduces imports from Chile by 28%
In the first four months of the new year (01/01 - 04/05/2025), the EU imported a total of 12,626 mt of prunes worth EUR 39.62 million from third countries, meaning that the import volume fell by 13.1% year-on-year and the import value by as much as 22.1%. At EUR 3.14/kg (-10.3% yoy), the average import price in this period was significantly lower than in the previous year.
This is partly due to lower shipments from the main producing countries such as Chile (-27.9% to 5,774 mt) and the USA (-33.1% to 1,072 mt), while imports from Moldova also declined (-35.9% to 1,268 mt). In contrast, there was an increase in deliveries from Argentina (+41.6% to 1,526 mt), Serbia (+55.7% to 1,353 mt) and Uzbekistan (+90.8% to 868 mt).
Accordingly, some of the EU's main customer countries have significantly reduced their imports. Germany, for example, massively increased its imports by 17.3% year-on-year to 1,900 mt. At the same time, shipments to Spain fell by 5.5% to 1,540 mt and Italy also imported around 28% less at 1,550 mt, while deliveries to Poland fell by 63.2% to 1,090 mt.
|
EU prune imports, in mt |
|||
|
Partner |
2024 |
2025 |
Diff. |
|
Chile |
8,012 |
5,774 |
-27.9% |
|
Argentina |
1,078 |
1,526 |
41.6% |
|
Serbia |
869 |
1,353 |
55.7% |
|
Moldova |
1,977 |
1,268 |
-35.9% |
|
USA |
1,602 |
1,072 |
-33.1% |
|
Uzbekistan |
455 |
868 |
90.8% |
|
Turkey |
353 |
410 |
16.1% |
|
Iran |
26 |
48 |
84.6% |
|
Georgia |
0 |
21 |
- |
|
Kyrgyzstan |
0,22 |
20 |
8,909.0% |
|
Others |
158 |
266 |
68.6% |
|
Total |
14,530 |
12,626 |
-13.1% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/01-04/05 08132000 dried prunes |
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